Prediction markets are signaling near-unanimous confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a quarter-point rate cut at its December meeting, turning earlier caution into an almost fully priced-in outcome.
What Happened
On Polymarket, the odds of a 25-basis-point reduction have surged to 84%, a sharp jump from 66% less than a week ago.
Additional markets on the platform, those combining rate decisions with the number of dissenting votes, show strong support for the same outcome.
Traders now place the probability of a 25-bps cut accompanied by more than two dissenters at around 63%, while a cut with two or fewer dissenting votes is priced near 60%.
By contrast, expectations for no rate change have fallen to the margins, hovering between 12% and 16%.
Kalshi’s forecasts echo this shift. The exchange also assigns an 84% likelihood to a quarter-point cut, while rating the chances of the Fed holding rates steady at just 18%.
Any move larger or smaller than 25 basis points sits at minimal probability levels, reflecting a market that has firmly converged on one scenario.
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CME’s FedWatch Tool reinforces the trend.
For the December 10 meeting, the tool now shows an 84.9% chance that the policy range will be lowered to 350–375 basis points from the current 375–400.
Only 15.1% of the weighting favors no change.
Why It Matters
The move represents a notable rise from last week’s 71% probability and suggests accelerating conviction among rate traders.
The agreement across Polymarket, Kalshi, and CME tools points to a broad market consensus, where investors expect the Fed to ease, even against a backdrop of mixed communication and economic uncertainty.
With holiday liquidity and year-end positioning influencing sentiment, the standard 25-bps cut has emerged as the dominant expectation.
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