Bitcoin is once again struggling to keep pace with traditional safe-haven assets as gold rallies sharply amid renewed macroeconomic volatility. With prices hovering around $93,000 and momentum faltering, analysts are eyeing deeper pullbacks, possibly below $92,000, as the digital asset continues to underperform in a risk-sensitive environment.
At the start of the trading week on May 6, Bitcoin (BTC) began flirting with fresh monthly lows, failing to sustain bullish momentum above $95,000. By contrast, gold (XAU/USD) surged to new local highs, extending a 4.4% gain over the past week and climbing 1.5% on the day. The divergence in performance underscores a shifting investor preference as geopolitical and monetary pressures elevate the appeal of traditionally safer assets.
This widening gap between BTC and gold comes at a moment of rising uncertainty in global markets. Currency volatility, softer U.S. dollar positioning, and growing concern over trade tensions are reviving demand for physical commodities. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold - once a prominent narrative among digital asset investors - has come under scrutiny.
According to macro analysts at QCP Capital, the current dynamic reflects an increasingly binary market structure. In their latest bulletin, QCP highlighted subdued implied volatility in crypto, with spot markets showing directionless movement. While gold continues to benefit from geopolitical hedging and dollar weakness, Bitcoin has failed to capitalize on the same drivers.
“Crypto implied vols remain suppressed, with front-end skew drifting back toward neutral and spot largely directionless,” QCP noted. “This comes as the FX shakeup coincides with a nearly 3% surge in gold on Monday, as investors lean into the weaker-dollar narrative and price in geopolitical risk premia.”
That divergence has reopened debate over Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge. While some market watchers still consider BTC part of the decentralized, inflation-protected asset class, its recent price behavior has decoupled from gold's trajectory. Analysts now see Bitcoin as more aligned with traditional risk assets, such as equities, than with non-sovereign stores of value.
Support Levels Under Pressure Ahead of FOMC
Technical signals suggest Bitcoin may continue to trade lower in the short term. The $93,500 support, closely aligned with BTC’s yearly opening price, is facing repeated tests. Traders are now preparing for a potential breakdown toward the $90,000–$92,000 range if momentum fails to recover quickly.
Keith Alan, co-founder of trading analytics platform Material Indicators, noted in a May 5 update that the support zone is unlikely to hold without renewed buying pressure. “To summarize, I’ll be pleasantly surprised if the YO [yearly open] holds,” he said. “While I’m prepared for a wick to the $88k–$90k range, I think the $91.6k level around the 21 MA is a likely target this week.”
This technical fragility is compounded by the imminent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for May 7, where the Federal Reserve is expected to offer new guidance on interest rates and economic conditions. As traders brace for the possibility of hawkish rhetoric or a policy shift, Bitcoin's near-term direction may hinge on the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks.
Technical Indicators Signal Divergence on Timeframes
From a technical perspective, conflicting momentum readings across different timeframes are contributing to market indecision. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD), a widely followed trend strength indicator, is sending mixed signals.
On the one hand, popular chart analyst Dave the Wave pointed to a bullish crossover on the weekly MACD, which may indicate longer-term upward potential. On the other hand, shorter timeframes such as the daily MACD are signaling bearish momentum, with the indicator crossing below the zero line.
“BTC is consolidating between last week’s high and low, awaiting tomorrow’s FOMC meeting and Jerome Powell’s speech,” trader Titan of Crypto wrote. “Meanwhile, the daily MACD is crossing bearish, signaling slowing momentum.”
This divergence reinforces the view that the current correction may be part of a broader consolidation phase, rather than a clear directional trend shift.
Bitcoin and Gold
Despite the recent disconnect, the longer-term narrative linking Bitcoin and gold remains active in some circles. The Kobeissi Letter, a macroeconomic research outlet, emphasized that correlations between the two assets have increased at various times over the past month.
“In April, Bitcoin joined the gold run, increasing correlation for the first time in months,” the team wrote. “Between April 7 and April 21, gold surged +15% along with +12% in Bitcoin. The flight to decentralized and inflation-protected assets is strong.”
Still, that correlation appears increasingly fragile. Unlike gold, Bitcoin continues to trade within a speculative framework, highly sensitive to liquidity flows, macroeconomic expectations, and regulatory pressure. As a result, periods of alignment between the two assets may be episodic rather than systemic.
Liquidity, Policy, and Risk Repricing
The current market backdrop is defined by rising geopolitical tension, elevated inflation uncertainty, and diverging central bank policies. These factors are reshaping cross-asset correlations and forcing investors to reconsider hedging strategies.
Gold’s recent surge reflects a repricing of geopolitical and monetary risks. The yellow metal has benefited from both a weakening dollar and the pricing-in of global instability - including trade disputes and regional conflicts.
Bitcoin, however, appears caught in the middle. While its long-term proponents argue that it offers protection against fiat devaluation, its performance over the past year has reflected broader speculative cycles rather than defensive positioning.
Moreover, with major crypto ETFs now trading in U.S. markets, BTC is increasingly behaving like a high-beta tech stock - moving in step with equity market sentiment and rate expectations rather than acting as an uncorrelated asset.
Institutional Positioning
Another factor contributing to Bitcoin's recent softness is the state of institutional participation. While the launch of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 led to a wave of inflows, those inflows have slowed in recent weeks as market participants take profits and reassess macro conditions.
According to data from Farside Investors, net flows into Bitcoin ETFs have moderated, and institutional funds appear to be rotating into defensive positions, including gold and short-duration treasuries. This shift reflects a more cautious posture as investors prepare for possible rate volatility or softening U.S. economic data.
Additionally, crypto-specific volatility remains low. The muted options market reflects subdued speculative activity, limiting short-term catalysts for significant price swings.
Key Levels to Watch and What Comes Next
Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory over the next several weeks will likely be shaped by a combination of technical and macroeconomic factors. Key support levels include $93,500, $91,600 (aligned with the 21-week moving average), and the psychologically significant $90,000 mark. A break below these zones could trigger a sharper drawdown toward the $88,000 area.
On the upside, reclaiming $95,000 and holding above it consistently would be the first sign of bullish reaccumulation. Beyond that, $97,500 and $100,000 remain key resistance targets.
But any decisive move will require clarity from macroeconomic policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve. If the Fed signals a longer pause in rate hikes or suggests softening economic conditions, risk assets including Bitcoin could find room to rally.
Conversely, any indication of renewed tightening or persistent inflation could fuel a further rotation into gold, reinforcing Bitcoin’s current underperformance.