BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argued in a Mar. 2 essay titled "iOS Warfare" that U.S. military engagement with Iran will follow a four-decade pattern of Federal Reserve rate cuts and money printing in response to Middle Eastern conflicts, a scenario he said would ultimately push Bitcoin (BTC) higher despite the coin trading at roughly $66,200 — down 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
What Happened: Hayes Links War to Fed Easing
Hayes laid out a historical case connecting every major U.S. military campaign in the Middle East since 1985 to subsequent monetary easing by the Fed.
He pointed to three precedents: rate cuts following the 1990 Gulf War under President George H.W. Bush, an emergency 50-basis-point reduction after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks under Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, and already-zero rates during President Barack Obama's 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan.
The essay framed Donald Trump's apparent endorsement of regime change in Iran as the next chapter in that sequence.
Hayes argued that Iranian regime change has been a bipartisan objective among U.S. policymakers since 1979, giving the Fed political cover to loosen monetary policy to finance the effort.
He backed the argument with data showing the Department of Veterans Affairs budget grew at twice the pace of aggregate federal spending since 1985, while effective Fed Funds Rates fell after each major military engagement. Bitcoin has fallen for five consecutive months, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index stuck in extreme fear territory.
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Why It Matters: Timing the Next Rally
Despite his long-term bullish outlook, Hayes urged near-term caution. He recommended waiting for the Fed to actually cut rates or begin printing money before adding exposure to Bitcoin and select altcoins.
"We do not know how long Trump will remain interested in spending billions, if not trillions, of dollars reshaping Iran's politics to his liking, nor how much geopolitical and financial markets pain he can politically tolerate before he cuts and runs," Hayes wrote. "The time to back up the truck and buy Bitcoin and high-quality shitcoins like $HYPE is immediately after the Fed cuts rates and or prints money to support the government's goals in Iran."
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