Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are on course to close Q1 2026 with their third-worst first-quarter performances on record, according to CoinGlass data - with Bitcoin down 23.21% for the quarter and Ether off 32.17%, both far below their long-run historical averages.
The losses cap a three-month stretch shaped by persistent macro headwinds, leveraged position unwinding, and a weekend geopolitical shock that sent Bitcoin briefly below $64,000.
Bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,700 and has since shed roughly $20,000. The quarter's loss is exceeded only by Q1 2018's 49.7% collapse and Q1 2014's 37.42% decline - both periods of confirmed bear-market conditions.
The current result sits well below Bitcoin's historical Q1 average return of +45.9%, though that figure is heavily skewed by outlier years: Q1 2013 returned +539.9%, and Q1 2021 posted +103.2%. The historical Q1 median is a far more modest -2.26%.
Ether's Steeper Slide
Ether's 32.17% quarterly decline is its third-worst Q1 since 2016, trailing only the drawdowns recorded during the 2018 bear market and the 2022 rate-shock year.
The loss compares against Ether's historical Q1 average of +66.45% and a median return of just +4.37% - a divergence that illustrates how extreme the top and bottom years pull the average in either direction.
Ether's higher beta relative to Bitcoin means it tends to amplify both upside and downside moves during risk-off periods, a pattern consistent with what played out this quarter.
What Drove the Quarter
The losses accumulated gradually through January and February before Saturday's US-Israeli strikes on Iran delivered the sharpest single-session drop - roughly 6.5% for Bitcoin and 9% for Ether - within hours of the first headlines.
Bitcoin registered its first back-to-back red January and February on record entering this month.
CryptoQuant data showed CME Bitcoin futures open interest fell 47% from its 2025 peak during the quarter, pointing to sustained deleveraging rather than a single liquidation event.
Sunday's partial recovery - Bitcoin back above $66,800, Ether reclaiming $1,994 - narrows the quarter's final losses but does not change the historical ranking with Q1 closing today.
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