Prediction market platform Polymarket accumulated $529 million in trading volume on US-Iran strike contracts - one of the largest single-market totals in the platform's history - while blockchain analysts identified six freshly created wallets that collectively netted approximately $1 million by betting on the exact strike date hours before the first explosions hit Tehran.
The pattern has renewed a debate over whether prediction markets accelerate price discovery or create profitable conditions for those with advance knowledge of government actions.
The "US strikes Iran by…?" family of contracts had been live since December 22, accumulating volume across daily date-specific markets.
The February 28 contract alone drew roughly $90 million in trading.
Once Khamenei's death was confirmed, a separate market - "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader by March 31?" - resolved at 100%, paying out $45 million in volume. The top trader on that contract, an account called "Curseaaaaaaa," collected $757,000 on a yes position.
The Wallet Pattern
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged six accounts that purchased yes shares on the February 28 contract hours before Operation Epic Fury began.
All six wallets were created in February, had no prior trading history, and were funded within 24 hours of the strikes.
The largest account bought 560,680 shares at 10.8 cents each - a $61,000 position that paid out over $493,000 when the contract resolved at $1.
The Block's own review of the six profiles put combined net profits at approximately $989,000.
Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman told The Block: "It's almost impossible to be 100% certain, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing, it felt convincing enough to share."
Read also: Kalshi Refused To Let Traders Profit From Khamenei's Death - Then Refunded Everyone On A $36M Market
Regulatory Pressure Mounts
This is not Polymarket's first suspected insider episode.
In January, a newly created wallet turned $32,000 into over $400,000 on a contract about Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's removal, with shares purchased before the event became public.
Israeli authorities earlier charged an IDF reservist for allegedly using classified intelligence to trade on June 2025 strike markets.
Representative Ritchie Torres has proposed the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026, which would bar federal officials from trading contracts tied to government actions using nonpublic information.
Rival platform Kalshi has backed the bill, noting its own regulated status prohibits it from hosting war-related markets at all.
Read next: Bitcoin Reclaims $66,800, Solana Jumps 10.8% As Markets Price In A Shorter US-Iran Conflict