A previously dormant Polymarket trader has returned after seven months to place $8,198 in wagers on potential Israeli military strikes against Iran by Mar. 31, 2026. The account, operating under the username ricosuave666, has accumulated $155,699.12 in total profits, with every prior Israel-related position proving successful.
What Happened: Trader Returns
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain identified the account's renewed activity on Jan. 7, 2026, noting the trader is betting on Israeli strikes occurring by Jan. 31 and Mar. 31, 2026.
The odds of an Israeli military strike by Jan. 31 stand at 38%, while the likelihood rises to 54% for Mar. 31, according to Polymarket data.
The timing coincides with escalating regional tensions. Iranian authorities accused Israel of attempting to undermine national unity following protests that began in late December over the sharp depreciation of Iran's national currency against the US dollar.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed support for the demonstrations, according to The Times of Israel.
Iran's National Defense Council issued a statement warning it may consider preemptive military action against enemies if it perceives concrete threats to its security, though the council did not explicitly name Israel or the United States.
Also Read: Tether Launches Scudo, Satoshi-Inspired Fractional Gold Unit Amid Record Price Rally
Why It Matters: Insider Concerns
The activity has drawn scrutiny following recent controversies involving Venezuela, where three wallets reportedly earned more than $630,000 by betting on the arrest of President Nicolás Maduro just hours before the event.
Lookonchain questioned whether ricosuave666 operates with privileged information, though no concrete evidence of insider trading has emerged.
The wagers may reflect strategic speculation based on publicly available geopolitical analysis rather than non-public intelligence. While the timing has attracted attention, the activity remains open to interpretation as either informed positioning or coincidence.
Read Next: Can Bitcoin Break $97K With $1B In Stablecoin Reserves Available On Binance?