Polymarket bettors sent death threats to an Israeli military correspondent after he reported that an Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area near Beit Shemesh on March 10, a report whose wording determined the outcome of a $14 million-plus prediction market contract.
The episode adds to mounting scrutiny of war-related betting on event trading platforms, and arrives days after U.S. lawmakers introduced legislation to ban such contracts entirely.
What Happened
Emanuel Fabian, military correspondent for The Times of Israel, published a first-person account Monday describing how Polymarket bettors began contacting him after his March 10 report on the missile impact. The contract at issue - "Iran strikes Israel on…?" - would resolve "Yes" if an Iranian missile, drone, or airstrike hit Israeli soil on that date; intercepted projectiles did not qualify.
Fabian said bettors who had wagered "No" demanded he revise his report to say the projectile was intercepted. When he declined, the messages escalated.
One individual, using the name Haim, sent an explicit WhatsApp threat: "After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you."
Someone also impersonated a lawyer, claiming a U.S. company was investigating Fabian's reporting as "manipulation." Fabian filed a police report.
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Legislative Response
The incident falls within a broader pattern of integrity concerns on prediction platforms. Two Israelis have been indicted for allegedly using classified information to trade on Polymarket around Israeli strike timing.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps previously identified wallets that collectively earned roughly $1 million wagering that the U.S. would strike Iran before those strikes occurred.
Sen. Adam Schiff and Rep. Mike Levin introduced the DEATH BETS Act on March 10, which would prohibit any CFTC-registered exchange from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, or individual deaths.
Republicans control both chambers, making near-term passage unlikely.
Platform Context
Polymarket has accumulated $62.3 billion in total trading volume since launch, giving it roughly 55% of the $114 billion prediction market segment, according to Token Terminal. The platform previously removed a contract on nuclear detonation after online criticism; it has not publicly addressed the threats against Fabian.
"The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed," Fabian wrote.
Polymarket did not respond to requests for comment.
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