Several Polymarket traders turned precisely timed wagers on the U.S.-Iran ceasefire into six-figure payouts — with one account reportedly gaining roughly 3,500% on a single bet — fueling growing suspicion of insider trading on prediction markets.
Polymarket Ceasefire Profits
Blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain flagged a trader using the handle BlueHorseshoe86, who netted $194,000 from a ceasefire bet.
That same account had previously earned $260,000 on a "Maduro out" wager tied to the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
"His total profit now stands at $440K, all from bets on 'Maduro out' and the US–Iran ceasefire," Lookonchain noted.
A separate user turned $13,200 into $477,544 — a gain of approximately 3,500% on a single position. "He legit traded all the money he had in his account in this one. What did he know?" one market watcher asked.
A third wallet, labeled "suspicious" by prediction market tracker Polymarket History, reportedly earned more than $400,000 by correctly calling both the timing of the Iran military operation and the subsequent ceasefire. "Created just before the operation. Two perfect calls. Over $400K in profit," the tracker's post read.
Also Read: Ethereum Eyed For Euro Stablecoin Settlement Layer
Insider Trading Concerns
No confirmed evidence of insider trading has emerged. But the precision and scale of these gains have renewed scrutiny over how prediction markets handle sensitive geopolitical wagers.
The pattern is not isolated. U.S. lawmakers have introduced bills that would expand oversight of prediction platforms and restrict government officials from placing bets on policy outcomes.
Polymarket itself published updated market integrity rules in response. The new framework prohibits trading on stolen confidential information, acting on illegal tips and placing wagers on outcomes a user can directly influence.
Bitcoin Rally on Ceasefire
The ceasefire announcement also sent the broader crypto market sharply higher.
Bitcoin (BTC) surged as much as 4.9% to $72,738, reaching its highest level since Mar. 18, according to Bloomberg data.
Ether (ETH) rose as much as 7.4% to $2,273. Total crypto market capitalization climbed from roughly $2.3 trillion to about $2.43 trillion as investors rotated back into risk assets. The rally triggered nearly $600M in leveraged crypto futures liquidations, with short sellers absorbing the bulk of the losses.