JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argued on Thursday that Bitcoin (BTC) now looks more appealing than gold for long-term investors, a contrarian call issued as cryptocurrency markets struggle with sustained selling pressure.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its October peak near $126,000. Gold has climbed roughly one-third over the same period, reaching above $4,850 per ounce.
The divergence has prompted questions about Bitcoin's role as catastrophe insurance and a store of value.
What Happened
Bitcoin is trading near $67,000 at the time of writing, more than 20% below its estimated production cost of $87,000. JPMorgan calculated this figure based on average mining expenses including electricity, equipment, and operational overhead.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue suffering outflows, with negative sentiment widespread among retail and institutional investors.
The Bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio has fallen to 1.5, a record low. Gold's volatility has increased during its rally while Bitcoin's volatility has declined during the selloff.
On a volatility-adjusted basis, Bitcoin's market cap would need to reach $266,000 per coin to match private sector investment in gold of roughly $8 trillion, excluding central bank holdings.
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Why It Matters
The $266,000 figure represents long-term potential rather than a near-term price target. Panigirtzoglou acknowledges this level is "unrealistic for this year" but illustrates upside once negative sentiment dissipates.
The calculation rests on Bitcoin regaining perception as equally attractive to gold as a hedge against catastrophic scenarios. This would require markets to treat both assets equivalently on a risk-adjusted basis.
JPMorgan noted that Bitcoin trading below production costs has historically served as a soft price floor. The bank added that if current prices force unprofitable miners offline, production costs may naturally adjust lower.
The cryptocurrency has traded below production costs during previous bear markets in 2019 and 2022 before eventually recovering.
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