Memecoin projects on Solana-based platform Pump.fun are dying at unprecedented rates, with the platform's "graduation rate" remaining below 1% for the fourth consecutive week, according to data from Dune Analytics.
The dismal performance marks the longest sustained period of sub-1% survival in the platform's history. Graduation rate refers to tokens that successfully complete the incubation phase and become fully tradable on Solana decentralized exchanges by meeting specific liquidity and trading requirements.
Data shows the decline began February 17 and has persisted through mid-March, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment toward these speculative digital assets. Even during Pump.fun's strongest period last November, only 1.67% of launched tokens survived to reach open market trading.
"The US dollar has recently weakened, leading to a rebound in liquidity indicators and some marginal improvements in inflation data," Matrixport analysts wrote in a recent report. "Despite these positive shifts, memecoins — previously one of the strongest narratives during this bull market — continue to struggle significantly, with no apparent recovery."
Token creation volume has declined substantially across both Pump.fun and the broader Solana ecosystem in recent months. Weekly graduation numbers have fallen to a four-week average of approximately 1,500 tokens, according to Dune Analytics data. This represents a dramatic decrease from November when roughly 5,400 tokens entered Solana's DeFi economy in a single week during the platform's peak performance.
The downturn reflects diminishing investor appetite for memecoins, which have increasingly been viewed as high-risk speculation vehicles or quick profit opportunities for creators rather than sustainable investments. The trend has continued despite improving macroeconomic conditions that would typically support risk assets.
Even high-profile memecoin projects have struggled to maintain value. Former President Donald Trump's token has lost 84% of its value since reaching an all-time high on January 19, according to data from CoinGecko.
Market conditions that would normally support cryptocurrency valuations have failed to revive the memecoin sector. The US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against major currencies, has weakened considerably from its February 28 peak of 107.61 to 103.95 on March 14. Typically, dollar weakness correlates with stronger cryptocurrency performance.
Matrixport analysts suggest the memecoin collapse has contributed to a staggering $1 trillion reduction in overall cryptocurrency market capitalization. "This redistribution of wealth may lead investors to remain cautious about deploying further capital, causing rebounds — even those triggered by better-than-expected inflation data — to be limited," the report stated.
The analysis concludes with a warning that Bitcoin could face additional downward pressure, potentially retreating to approximately $73,000 — a level Matrixport believes will provide "strong support" for the leading cryptocurrency.