Portugal's gambling regulator ordered cryptocurrency prediction market Polymarket to cease operations after more than €5 million surged into presidential election markets hours before official results were announced.
The Serviço de Regulação e Inspeção de Jogos confirmed to Portuguese broadcaster Renascença that it considers Polymarket illegal because the platform lacks authorization and Portuguese law prohibits betting on political events.
The regulator gave Polymarket 48 hours to shut down on Friday but the site remained operational Monday.
Total volume on Portuguese presidential markets exceeded €110 million, with suspicious activity concentrated in the two hours before Socialist candidate António José Seguro's first-round victory became public.
What Happened
Market odds for Seguro jumped from 60% to 95% between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. Sunday, while polls were still open and an hour before exit polls were released.
Liberal candidate João Cotrim de Figueiredo's odds simultaneously collapsed from 22% to 2.5% during the same period.
The dramatic shift occurred as exit poll results began circulating privately among journalists and polling companies around 6 p.m., according to Renascença's reporting.
Seguro ultimately won 31% of first-round votes compared to far-right candidate André Ventura's 24%, advancing both to a February runoff.
SRIJ told Renascença it only regulates licensed operators in Portugal and cannot guarantee Portuguese users will recover funds invested on the platform after any blocking order takes effect.
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Why It Matters
Portugal becomes the latest European jurisdiction to block Polymarket after France, Belgium, Poland, Romania and Switzerland imposed similar restrictions throughout the previous year.
The platform, founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, secured up to $2 billion in investment from Intercontinental Exchange in October, valuing the company at approximately $8 billion.
Polymarket operates on blockchain using USDC stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, allowing users to buy and sell positions on event outcomes.
The regulatory crackdown highlights ongoing tensions between decentralized prediction markets and national gambling laws as governments struggle to enforce restrictions on cryptocurrency-based platforms.
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