Shiba Inu has broken out of a bullish symmetrical triangle pattern while posting a 4% daily gain and 15% weekly surge, though conflicting on-chain metrics suggest the rally faces uncertainty as exchange supply falls and long-term holders increase profit-taking activity.
What to Know:
- Exchange supply dropped from 122.54 trillion to 121.31 trillion tokens between July 31 and August 11, reducing immediate sell pressure
- Spent Coin Age Bands metric has risen to July 24 levels, indicating long-term holders may be taking profits
- SHIB price broke above $0.00001368 resistance with potential targets at $0.00001438 and higher levels
Technical Breakout Meets Supply Dynamics
The memecoin has demonstrated notable strength while Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, with technical analysis revealing a clean break above the symmetrical triangle formation. Exchange reserves have declined nearly 1% over the past two weeks, dropping from 122.54 trillion tokens on July 31 to 121.31 trillion by August 11.
This supply reduction typically creates favorable conditions for price appreciation by limiting tokens available for immediate sale. The timing correlation appears significant, as Shiba Inu's price surge began shortly after exchange supply hit monthly lows on August 11.
Similar patterns emerged earlier in the month on July 24 and August 6, where supply decreases preceded price movements. However, recent price gains have coincided with slight increases in exchange supply from the August lows, requiring continued monitoring of this dynamic.
Long-Term Holder Activity Signals Caution
The Spent Coin Age Bands metric presents a contrasting signal that could limit upside momentum. This indicator tracks when previously dormant tokens enter circulation, often reflecting long-term holder profit-taking behavior. The metric reached multi-week lows in early August but has since climbed to levels last observed on July 24.
That July 24 reading preceded a notable price correction, establishing a concerning precedent for current conditions. Historical data shows local highs in Spent Coin Age Bands frequently coincide with subsequent SHIB price declines.
This pattern suggests long-term holders may be capitalizing on recent gains, potentially introducing additional supply pressure.
The metric's current trajectory indicates increased token movement from wallets that had remained inactive for extended periods. Such activity typically occurs when holders perceive favorable exit opportunities, creating a natural ceiling for continued price appreciation.
Price Targets And Critical Levels
Trading above the $0.00001368 breakout level confirms the triangle pattern completion, with immediate resistance appearing at $0.00001438. A successful push beyond this level would strengthen the bullish thesis and potentially target $0.00001469 and $0.00001518 resistance zones.
Extended momentum could drive prices toward $0.00001599, though this scenario requires sustained buying pressure and favorable resolution of the current supply dynamics. The Bull-Bear Indicator shows increasing bullish sentiment despite mixed on-chain signals.
Critical support lies between $0.00001318 and $0.00001224, representing the invalidation zone for the current breakout scenario. A decline below these levels would likely shift control back to sellers and negate the triangle breakout's bullish implications.
Understanding Cryptocurrency Metrics
Exchange supply refers to the total quantity of tokens held on trading platforms, representing readily available inventory for immediate sale. Declining exchange supply typically indicates accumulation behavior or token withdrawal to private wallets for longer-term holding.
Spent Coin Age Bands measure the movement of tokens based on their dormancy period, with higher readings indicating older coins entering circulation. Symmetrical triangles represent consolidation patterns where price oscillates between converging support and resistance lines, with breakouts suggesting directional momentum.
Closing Thoughts
Shiba Inu's technical breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern occurs amid declining exchange supply, creating potentially favorable conditions for continued gains. However, rising Spent Coin Age Bands suggest long-term holders are becoming active sellers, introducing a counterbalancing force that could limit the rally's sustainability.