Solana trades near a pivotal $165 support level that could determine whether the cryptocurrency continues its recent decline or positions for a potential rally to new all-time highs in the third quarter. The token currently sits at $163, down 3.3% in daily trading, after experiencing a 25% correction from its recent peak of $206 reached two weeks ago.
What to Know:
- Solana must hold the critical $165 support level where 44.4 million tokens (7.42% of supply) are clustered, or risk further downside
- The cryptocurrency surged 9.6% Tuesday following news of Solana Mobile's global Seeker smartphone shipments to over 50 countries
- Market analysts are divided, with some predicting new all-time highs this quarter while others forecast a 10-15% correction to $140-$150 levels
Mobile Launch Provides Brief Rally
Tuesday's 9.6% surge from recent lows came as Solana Mobile began global shipments of its second-generation Web3 smartphone, the Seeker, to more than 50 countries. The news drove the altcoin to a multi-day high of $171 before prices retreated to current levels in the mid-zone of its established trading range.
Solana has maintained a $140-$180 trading range since breaking out in April and May.
The cryptocurrency has spent three months attempting to reclaim its local high within this channel.
During June's market correction, Solana briefly lost its range lows and tested the $120-$130 zone for support. However, the token recovered during July's rally, temporarily breaking above the upper boundary to reach a five-month high of $206.
Technical Analysis Points to Key Levels
Market analyst Ali Martinez identified Solana's most critical support and resistance levels using the UTXO Realized Price Distribution indicator. The analysis reveals the $165 mark as the primary support area, where the largest concentration of tokens sits.
At this level, 44.4 million Solana tokens representing 7.42% of the total supply are clustered. Failure to hold above $165 could transform this support into resistance, potentially triggering additional selling pressure.
Should Solana reclaim the $165 level, the cryptocurrency would face resistance around $177 and $189.
These levels contain 27.6 million and 23.6 million tokens respectively, accumulated by investors who may look to exit positions.
The token's current position between $160-$164 represents a critical juncture for near-term price direction.
Analyst Predictions Diverge on Price Path
Market watchers remain split on Solana's immediate trajectory. Analyst Crypto Jelle maintains a bullish outlook, noting that Solana is "quietly trending higher" with higher lows and resistance levels converting to support.
Jelle forecasts new all-time highs for Solana during the current quarter. He expressed confidence that momentum will accelerate once the cryptocurrency breaks above $200 resistance, stating he doubts "the train stops anytime soon."
However, other analysts anticipate further corrections before any significant upward movement. Crypto Batman suggests Solana could experience a 10% decline to its four-month ascending support line around $150 before initiating "the real move."
This support line has previously served as a launching pad for rallies. The cryptocurrency bounced from this level twice—in April and June—before advancing to local highs during May and July breakouts.
Network Fundamentals Remain Strong Despite Price Weakness
Analyst Ted Pillows maintains that Solana could experience substantial gains this year despite recent underperformance, citing continued strength in network activity. He predicts a 10%-15% correction, stating that "a dip towards $140-$150 before reversal is highly likely to happen."
The divergent views reflect uncertainty about short-term price movements while maintaining longer-term optimism based on network fundamentals and adoption metrics.
Understanding Key Terms
The UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) indicator mentioned in technical analysis measures where cryptocurrency holders acquired their positions. This metric helps identify potential support and resistance levels by showing price ranges where large amounts of tokens were purchased.
Support and resistance levels represent price points where buying or selling pressure historically increases. Support levels indicate prices where demand typically emerges, while resistance levels show where selling pressure often intensifies.
An altcoin refers to any cryptocurrency other than Bitcoin, with Solana falling into this category as an alternative blockchain platform focused on high-speed transactions and smart contracts.
Closing Thoughts
Solana's immediate price direction hinges on its ability to maintain the critical $165 support level amid conflicting analyst predictions. While some experts forecast new all-time highs this quarter, others anticipate a correction to $140-$150 levels before any substantial rally begins.