SpaceX posts its first earnings as a public company Tuesday, with analysts expecting $10.2 billion of AI capital spending in the quarter against $1.42 billion in Starlink profit.
Key Points:
- SpaceX reports second-quarter results after Tuesday's close, its first disclosure since the June listing.
- Analysts expect $14.05 billion in group capital spending, with the AI segment taking about $10.2 billion.
- A lockup expiration on Aug. 6 could free as many as 911.5 million shares, more than the current public float.
SpaceX Earnings Preview: AI Capex Against Starlink Profit
The company will release second-quarter figures after the closing bell, its first report card since June's $85.7 billion listing. Analysts tracked by LSEG expect revenue of about $6.93 billion and a loss before interest and taxes of $1.55 billion.
Revenue from the AI unit is forecast to reach $2.33 billion for the quarter, nearly triple the year-earlier figure.
Capital spending is where the strain shows. The AI segment consumed $7.72 billion in the January-March quarter, about three-quarters of the company total, and analysts now expect group capex of $14.05 billion for the April-June period.
Starlink, which closed March with 10.3 million subscribers, roughly double the level a year earlier, is expected to deliver $3.82 billion in revenue and $1.42 billion in operating profit, even as average revenue per user keeps sliding.
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Analysts Question Whether Starlink Can Fund SpaceX AI
Will Rhind, chief executive of GraniteShares, said Starlink is performing well but cannot single-handedly fund a $30 billion annualized AI capital program. His firm offers exchange-traded funds tied to SpaceX share performance, giving it a direct stake in Tuesday's outcome.
Michael Monaghan, portfolio manager of the Founders 100 ETF, said the key question is whether the company can monetize its AI infrastructure quickly enough through outside compute deals. Some of those contracts already exist, though not yet at the scale the spending implies.
SpaceX has signed compute agreements with Anthropic and Alphabet, including a Google Cloud arrangement that pays roughly $920 million a month for capacity.
SpaceX Stock Faces Starship Scrutiny And Lockup Day
Investors will also press for detail on Starship, which last month deployed the first upgraded Starlink V3 satellites on its 13th test flight. The booster missed a controlled splashdown, and analysts expect the launch unit to post $871.4 million in revenue against an operating loss of $773 million for the quarter.
Restrictions on insider selling start lifting Aug. 6, when as many as 911.5 million shares become eligible to trade, a total larger than the current public float.
A further 455.8 million shares could follow if certain price conditions are met, though Elon Musk's own stake and those of a small group of insiders stay locked until the middle of 2027. The stock priced at $135 a share in June and touched $225.64 on June 16, an intraday record it has not come close to since.
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