SpaceX stock is facing fresh valuation doubts after Morningstar analysts said SPCX could fall toward $63, even as IPO demand stayed strong.
Key Points:
- Morningstar estimated fair value for SPCX at $63, far below the proposed $135 IPO price.
- Demand for the SpaceX IPO reportedly topped $350 billion, according to Walter Bloomberg.
- Some analysts remain bullish, with a $190 price target tied to SpaceX’s space and AI growth story.
SpaceX Valuation
Analysts at Morningstar questioned the valuation of SpaceX after one of the year’s most closely watched IPOs drew heavy interest from institutional and retail investors.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Morningstar estimated fair value for SPCX at $63, far below the proposed IPO price of $135 and less than half the level implied by early demand.
That gap has turned the stock into a test of whether investors are pricing SpaceX on current fundamentals or on expectations for future gains in space technology and artificial intelligence.
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SPCX Outlook
Morningstar’s caution does not mean analysts expect an immediate drop.
The firm said demand could keep SPCX elevated for months, especially because early trading may be constrained by limited share supply and strong interest from funds and individual investors.
Market commentator Walter Bloomberg said the SpaceX IPO drew more than $350 billion in total demand, underscoring how much capital sought exposure to Elon Musk’s space company.
Some analysts remain more bullish, with one price target at $190, suggesting that investors are still willing to pay a premium for SpaceX’s lead in rockets, satellites and AI-linked infrastructure.
The split matters because SpaceX is being valued as both a dominant private technology company and a public-market growth story, while investors still have to judge revenue growth, profitability and execution risk.
Morningstar’s $63 estimate points to a more conservative view, where fundamentals eventually weigh more than IPO scarcity, brand strength and early trading momentum. The longer-term risk is that more shares enter the market and reduce scarcity, giving sellers room to test whether SPCX can hold above its IPO price without the same first-day enthusiasm.
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