Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research warned this week that Bitcoin could drop below $100,000 by the weekend, marking what the bank believes may be the final opportunity to purchase the cryptocurrency at five-figure prices. Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick issued the projection in a client note Wednesday while Bitcoin traded near $108,000, down roughly 10 percent over two weeks as the market absorbed October's sell-off.
What to Know:
- Standard Chartered maintains its year-end target of $200,000 for Bitcoin despite forecasting a near-term decline below $100,000, citing ETF demand and corporate treasury adoption as primary drivers.
- Kendrick identified several technical indicators supporting a temporary pullback, including Bitcoin's failure to rally after an Oct. 10 risk-off break and the cryptocurrency's historical respect for its 50-week moving average since early 2023.
- The bank frames any sub-$100,000 move as a brief base-building phase rather than a structural breakdown, contingent on improvements in dollar liquidity conditions and capital rotation from gold back into Bitcoin.
Technical Signals Point to Tactical Retreat
Kendrick's assessment stems from Bitcoin's price action following its early October stumble. The cryptocurrency failed to regain momentum after breaking lower on Oct. 10, a pattern the strategist views as evidence of weakening short-term demand. "A decline below $100,000 now appears 'inevitable,'" Kendrick wrote, though he stressed the dip should prove temporary.
The bank is monitoring several metrics to gauge whether the pullback represents a buying opportunity or something more persistent. Kendrick cited the need for observable shifts in capital flows between gold and Bitcoin, improved dollar liquidity, and the behavior of the 50-week moving average—a technical threshold Bitcoin has honored since early 2023. Standard Chartered's research team views these factors as critical to determining whether the six-figure threshold holds as long-term support.
Bitcoin traded at $109,252 at press time Thursday, with spot prices hovering in the mid-$100,000 range throughout the session. Liquidity has thinned heading into the weekend, amplifying sensitivity to policy developments and macro headlines.
Bullish Framework Remains Despite Near-Term Caution
Standard Chartered has not retreated from its broader optimistic thesis. The bank told clients in July it expected Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by Dec. 31, driven by exchange-traded fund inflows, corporate balance sheet adoption and regulatory shifts under a more accommodative policy environment. Kendrick reiterated that framework in his latest note, describing the potential move below $100,000 as a "last-ever chance" to acquire Bitcoin at five-figure prices.
The projection assumes a resumption of the structural drivers Standard Chartered identified earlier this year.
The bank published research in July forecasting what it called the largest dollar rally on record during the second half of 2025, a scenario it believes would coincide with Bitcoin's climb to $200,000. Corporate treasury uptake and regulatory normalization remain central to that case.
Kendrick acknowledged the tension between near-term price pressure and the bank's year-end target. His analysis suggests the current environment fits within a base-building phase rather than a reversal of trend, provided key confirmation signals emerge. A sustained improvement in dollar liquidity, evidence of institutional rotation into Bitcoin and preservation of higher-timeframe technical structures would validate the bank's thesis that sub-$100,000 prices represent a final buying window.
Understanding the Market Dynamics
Exchange-traded funds tied to Bitcoin have emerged as a significant demand source since their introduction. These vehicles allow institutional and retail investors to gain exposure without directly holding the cryptocurrency. Corporate treasury adoption refers to companies allocating portions of their balance sheets to Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset, a practice that gained attention after several public companies made such moves in recent years.
Dollar liquidity conditions measure the availability of U.S. currency in global markets, a factor that historically correlates with risk asset performance.
Quantitative tightening, the process by which central banks reduce their balance sheets, tends to remove liquidity from the financial system. The 50-week moving average is a technical indicator that smooths price data over roughly one year, often used to identify longer-term trends.
Capital rotation between gold and Bitcoin reflects investor decisions to shift allocations between traditional safe-haven assets and digital alternatives. Standard Chartered's analysis suggests this dynamic could signal changing risk appetites and confidence in Bitcoin's role within portfolios.
Closing Thoughts
Standard Chartered's forecast presents a tactical setback within an unchanged strategic view. Kendrick's warning about a move below $100,000 this weekend reflects short-term technical weakness, but the bank continues to frame Bitcoin's trajectory as ultimately positive. Whether the sub-$100,000 threshold proves to be a permanent support level depends on the reemergence of institutional demand and improved liquidity conditions in the weeks ahead.