Bitcoin has likely set a lasting floor above $100,000, according to Geoff Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, citing stronger macro conditions, rising ETF inflows, and renewed investor confidence.
“If this week goes well, Bitcoin may never go below 100k again,” Kendrick wrote in a Monday note.
The statement followed signs of easing U.S.-China tensions and improving risk sentiment, with the Bitcoin-gold ratio rebounding to pre-tariff-standoff levels and ETF inflows showing early signs of recovery.
Kendrick linked the shift in sentiment to U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remarks that China would suspend rare earth export controls and resume large-scale soybean purchases, in exchange for the U.S. dropping its 100% tariff threat.
“It’s a move that has pushed the market from fear to hope,” he wrote, adding that a break above a Bitcoin-gold ratio of 30 would confirm that transition.
The analyst also pointed to recent outflows from gold ETFs, more than $2 billion between Wednesday and Friday last week, as evidence of investors rotating toward risk assets.
“It would be confirmation of a more positive Bitcoin environment if we had half of that re-enter Bitcoin ETFs this week,” he noted, suggesting ETF flows now matter more to Bitcoin’s price cycle than the traditional halving narrative.
“The halving cycle is dead — ETF flows matter more,” Kendrick said.
The bullish tone from Standard Chartered comes as new data from CoinShares showed digital asset investment products attracting $921 million in inflows last week, aided by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data and rising expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.
According to James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, the U.S. led the surge with $843 million in inflows, followed by Germany with $502 million, while Switzerland saw $359 million in outflows due to asset transfers rather than selling pressure.
Bitcoin dominated the week with $931 million of inflows, bringing cumulative inflows since the Fed began cutting rates to $9.4 billion.
CoinShares said trading volumes in crypto exchange-traded products remained strong at $39 billion, well above the year-to-date average of $28 billion.
In contrast, Ethereum recorded $169 million in outflows, marking its first negative week in over a month, while flows into Solana and XRP cooled ahead of expected U.S. ETF launches.
Kendrick said the combination of falling yields, renewed ETF demand, and dovish monetary expectations are “Bitcoin-positive” and may mark the definitive end of its post-halving correction phase.
He added that a new all-time high in Bitcoin would be “the death knell” for those expecting a cyclical peak.
With the Federal Reserve expected to deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut at its next meeting, both Kendrick and CoinShares see macro conditions aligning in Bitcoin’s favour. If current inflow momentum holds, Standard Chartered’s forecast of Bitcoin never again trading below six figures could soon be tested in real time.