A speculative scenario circulating on social media reignited long-running concerns about whether future quantum computers could breach early Bitcoin addresses, including wallets believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, and dump a massive tranche of coins onto the market.
The debate was triggered by YouTuber and satirist Josh Otten, who posted a mock price chart showing Bitcoin collapsing to $3.
He suggested such a meltdown could occur if a sufficiently advanced quantum machine cracked Satoshi’s estimated 1.1 million BTC and immediately sold the holdings.
While the chart was designed as hyperbole, it resurfaced a genuine technical question: what happens when quantum computing becomes powerful enough to derive private keys from exposed public keys on older Bitcoin addresses?
Experts Warn Early Bitcoin Wallets Remain The Most Exposed
On-chain analyst Willy Woo noted that several million Bitcoin, including Satoshi’s, reside in early pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses, where the full public key is published on-chain once spent.
In theory, those keys are more vulnerable to future quantum attacks than modern formats.
“Many early investors would buy the dip. The network would survive; most coins aren’t at immediate risk,” Woo said, while stressing that P2PK outputs represent a unique weak point that quantum computing could eventually exploit.
Analysts echoed that risk, pointing out that once a public key is revealed, a sufficiently advanced quantum machine could one day compute the corresponding private key, a possibility that does not apply to newer address types where the public key remains hidden unless spent.
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Modern Bitcoin Addresses Offer Stronger Defenses
Developers have long noted that quantum-resistant practices already exist.
Newer Bitcoin addresses avoid exposing their public keys unless coins are actively moved, significantly reducing attack surface.
As long as public keys remain undisclosed, even a sophisticated quantum machine would have nothing to target.
Some in the community say the greater risk is market psychology, not cryptographic failure
Veteran cryptographer Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, downplayed near-term fears, arguing that Bitcoin is decades away from facing a real quantum threat.
He believes there is ample time, 20 to 40 years, for the industry to migrate to post-quantum cryptography standards that already exist today.
Market analyst James Check agreed that quantum-resistant upgrades will likely be adopted before any practical attack is possible.
He suggested the more immediate concern is how markets might react to the possibility of a quantum breakthrough rather than an actual compromise of Bitcoin’s encryption.
Check added that the community is unlikely to support freezing or altering Satoshi’s coins preemptively, even if the threat materializes, meaning any long-dormant holdings remain part of Bitcoin’s future, quantum risks included.
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