XRP (xrp) remains above a key support zone, but a bearish chart formation and weakening on-chain support suggest the token could face a deeper decline if buyers lose control of the $1.10 level.
Key Points:
- XRP's 12-hour chart shows a head-and-shoulders pattern that targets roughly $0.96 if support fails.
- Long-term holders increased accumulation between Jun. 19 and Jun. 21, helping defend the current price floor.
- On-chain cost-basis data indicates significantly less buyer support below $1.10, increasing downside risk.
XRP Price Pattern
A bearish technical setup is drawing attention to XRP's near-term outlook. On the 12-hour chart, the token has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, a structure widely viewed as a reversal signal after an uptrend.
The formation remains active because XRP continues to trade near its neckline support, which sits just above $1.10. Bulls defended that area during recent trading, preventing confirmation of the breakdown. However, the pattern remains intact until price decisively invalidates it. Based on the projected move from the formation, a confirmed break could send XRP toward $0.96.
The defense of the neckline appears to be driven largely by long-term investors rather than short-term traders.
Glassnode data shows XRP holder net position change rose from roughly 258.95 million XRP on Jun. 19 to about 264.25 million XRP by Jun. 21. The increase suggests holders who have owned tokens for at least 155 days added to positions during the recent weakness, treating the current zone as an attractive support level.
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XRP Support
While long-term holders continue accumulating, on-chain supply distribution suggests the support beneath current prices may be less substantial than many investors assume.
Glassnode's cost-basis distribution data indicates that approximately 56.2 million XRP was last acquired around the current trading range, creating a meaningful support cluster. However, the next major zone between $1.10 and $1.11 contains only about 24.6 million XRP, less than half the size of the cluster above it.
That gap matters because it implies fewer buyers may be willing to step in if the neckline breaks. A decisive move below $1.10 could expose XRP to additional downside toward $1.04 before the technical target near $0.96 comes into focus. If selling pressure accelerates, traders may also begin watching the $0.89 area.
The bullish scenario requires XRP to reclaim the $1.14 Fibonacci level and then push above $1.17, which would invalidate the right shoulder of the pattern.
A break above $1.29 would fully negate the bearish structure and restore a stronger bullish outlook.
XRP has faced several sharp swings in recent months as traders balanced growing institutional interest against periods of broader crypto market weakness. Those competing forces have repeatedly turned the $1.10-$1.30 range into one of the most important battlegrounds for the token's medium-term trend.
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