Ripple’s native token XRP has delivered an impressive performance throughout July 2025, surging to multi-year highs amid renewed investor interest, bullish market momentum, and growing institutional engagement. However, technical signals now suggest that the rally may be running out of steam - with a potential correction looming if the $3.00 support level fails to hold.
XRP recently breached the $3.30 mark, a key psychological and technical resistance, marking a continuation of a rally that began in early July. The bullish move came alongside similar upside action in Bitcoin and Ethereum, fueled by ETF optimism, strong fund inflows, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. But analysts warn that XRP is now showing signs of exhaustion, and a pullback to key support levels may be necessary before the uptrend resumes.
According to technical analysis by ShayanMarkets, XRP’s breakout above $3.30 was supported by a bullish crossover of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which currently sit near the $2.40 mark. These averages - often viewed as dynamic support levels - confirm a strong bullish structure. However, price action in recent days suggests buyers are beginning to lose momentum.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had surged into overbought territory above 70, has now pulled back, falling below this threshold. This decline reflects waning buying pressure and raises the possibility of a local top near $3.30. Currently, XRP is hovering around the $3.00 support level - a key zone that must hold to sustain the bullish structure. A break below this level could prompt a deeper correction toward the $2.40 region, where long-term support lies.
"If XRP fails to hold $3.00, the correction could extend quickly as stop-loss orders are triggered, cascading prices toward the $2.40-$2.50 zone," explained crypto analyst Mark Elwood. "But if $3.00 holds, it sets the stage for a potential continuation of the rally toward $3.50 and beyond."
XRP/BTC Pair Echoes the Risk of a Pullback
The XRP/BTC chart also paints a similar picture. After rallying through the 100-day and 200-day moving averages around 2,400 SAT (Satoshis), XRP/BTC faced rejection at the 3,200 SAT level, a long-standing resistance area last tested in 2021.
Currently, the pair is consolidating around the 2,700 SAT region, which aligns with a fair value gap identified in earlier trading sessions. If this level holds, the market may attempt another move toward the 3,200 SAT resistance. However, a failure to maintain 2,700 SAT could push the pair back toward 2,400 SAT or even the critical 2,000 SAT support, representing a significant downside move.
Technical indicators on the BTC pair also mirror the USDT pair - with a flattening RSI and weakening volume suggesting reduced bullish strength. The situation could go either way, depending on how the market reacts around these mid-range support zones.
What’s Driving XRP’s Recent Rally?
XRP’s strong July performance has been driven by a mix of technical and fundamental factors. The broader crypto market rally, led by Bitcoin’s rise above $120,000, has lifted altcoins across the board. However, XRP has also benefited from more asset-specific catalysts:
Legal Clarity: Ripple’s partial legal win against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to remove regulatory uncertainty, making XRP more attractive to institutional investors.
Exchange Activity: Trading volumes on Korean exchanges like Upbit and Bithumb have surged, with XRP often ranked among the top-traded assets. This reflects a resurgence in retail interest, particularly in Asia.
ETF Speculation: Growing rumors around a potential XRP ETF - or its inclusion in future multi-asset crypto funds - have sparked bullish sentiment, even though formal applications have yet to materialize.
On-Chain Activity: According to data from Santiment and Messari, XRP’s network activity has improved, with increased wallet creation and higher transfer volume, indicating broader adoption.
Macro Factors at Play
Beyond XRP-specific developments, broader macroeconomic and market conditions are contributing to both the rally and the current caution:
- Cooling U.S. Inflation and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving inflows into risk assets, including crypto.
- Institutional Demand for Crypto ETPs is at record highs. CoinShares reported nearly $30 billion in year-to-date crypto fund inflows, with XRP and Ethereum among the biggest recent beneficiaries.
- Bitcoin Consolidation: With BTC hovering around the $118,000–$123,000 range, some investors are rotating into large-cap altcoins like XRP in search of higher returns.
However, these macro tailwinds are not without risk. A sudden reversal in macro sentiment - for example, due to unexpected inflation data or regulatory setbacks - could accelerate any correction in XRP, especially if technical support levels are breached.
What’s Next for XRP? Key Levels to Watch
As of July 28, XRP is trading just above $3.00, with short-term direction highly dependent on how the market reacts around this support.
- Immediate Support: $3.00 – critical to maintaining bullish sentiment.
- Major Support Zone: $2.40 – aligns with long-term moving averages.
- Resistance Levels: $3.30 and $3.50 – breakouts above these could open the path toward $4.00.
- BTC Pair Support: 2,700 SAT and 2,400 SAT – failure to hold could drag XRP lower across all trading pairs.
Short-term caution is warranted, particularly for leveraged traders. However, the long-term trend remains bullish unless XRP decisively breaks below $2.40.
Analysts Remain Cautiously Optimistic
Despite the current risk of a pullback, many analysts maintain a bullish outlook for XRP heading into Q3. Technical strategist Michaël van de Poppe noted that the ongoing correction is likely “a healthy reset” following a parabolic move, rather than a sign of trend reversal.
"If XRP can hold the $3.00 zone and consolidate, it may re-energize for another leg up - especially if Bitcoin remains stable and ETF narratives persist,” he wrote.
Others, like trader CryptoISO, warn of potential volatility ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, which could shake risk asset markets, including crypto.