A cryptocurrency analyst says Dogecoin could fall to five cents within 12 months. An established YouTube market commentator, told viewers his "base case" scenario has Dogecoin dropping to $0.05-$0.06 by 2026 if Bitcoin enters a sustained bear market, a 64% decline from Friday's $0.14 price.
What Happened: Technical Forecast
The prediction came in a Dec. 11 video where VisionPulsed argued Bitcoin has entered a bear regime based on technical indicators including an eight-day moving average near $102,000 and the Gaussian Channel.
"The base case here is that Bitcoin has entered a bear market," he said, adding that as long as BTC sits below roughly $103,000, Dogecoin trends toward five cents.
He pointed to 2022 patterns where Dogecoin made lower lows even as Bitcoin made higher lows, and cited historical cycles showing markets often produce a final rally 140-150 days from a major top before extended downtrends.
VisionPulsed framed $0.05-$0.06 as the "boring, brutal probability-weighted outcome" for the next 12 months unless Bitcoin breaks out.
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Why It Matters: Conditional Outlook
The forecast carries an escape clause: if Bitcoin makes a new all-time high by February, the bearish scenario gets invalidated.
"If Bitcoin makes a new all-time high by February, then Doge will avoid that [$0.05 target] and start pumping to the moon like everybody wants," he said.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.1411.
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