BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a detailed investment thesis on Hyperliquid (HYPE) Monday, setting a $150 price target for HYPE by August - roughly a fivefold gain from its ~$34 level at time of writing.
The call is not merely analytical: Hayes disclosed that HYPE is now Maelstrom's largest non-Bitcoin liquid position.
HYPE rose 12% in the 24 hours following the post.
The thesis carries notable weight given Maelstrom's disclosed stake - but also notable asterisks. Last year, the fund sold Hyperliquid just one month after predicting the protocol's fees would grow over 100-fold.
The Bull Case
Hayes frames Hyperliquid as the top-performing non-stablecoin protocol by revenue, and argues its aggressive tokenomics set it apart. 97% of protocol revenue is used to buy back HYPE from the market, making it a direct pass-through of platform growth to token holders.
His model requires Hyperliquid's 30-day annualized revenue to climb from $843 million in March to $1.4 billion by August - a level the platform already reached last August.
That would require capturing an additional 3.97% of global perpetual futures volume from centralized exchanges.
The secondary driver is HIP-3, Hyperliquid's permissionless perpetuals framework. In only four months, HIP-3 volumes already account for close to 10% of total Hyperliquid revenues, with new markets in silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500 gaining traction. Hayes expects HIP-3 revenue to grow 160% over six months.
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The Oil Factor - and the Risks
Macro volatility is already pulling in new volume. On Tuesday, Hyperliquid's crude oil perpetual pair (CL-USDC) reached roughly $1.29 billion in 24-hour volume, overtaking ETH-USDC. The surge follows the escalation of US-Iran tensions and traders seeking leveraged macro exposure on a 24/7 venue.
Still, context matters. Hayes previously called for Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by end-2025 and $200,000 by March 2026 - neither materialized. He also predicted the TRUMP memecoin would hit a $100 billion market cap by inauguration.
HYPE hit an eight-month low of $20 in late January before recovering to around $34. The token's all-time high sits above $59, reached in September 2025.
A $150 target would require not just revenue recovery, but a significant re-rating of the multiple the market assigns to DEX earnings - something that has not been consistent in prior cycles.