Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warned in a blog post published Tuesday that an AI-driven financial crisis could force the Federal Reserve to unleash unprecedented money printing, ultimately sending Bitcoin (BTC) to new highs after a potentially steep drawdown to $60,000 or below.
What Happened; Hayes Predicts AI Crisis
In the essay titled "This Is Fine," Hayes laid out a detailed model for how artificial intelligence adoption could trigger mass white-collar job losses, leading to a wave of defaults on consumer credit and mortgage debt that would overwhelm the U.S. banking system. He estimated that if 20% of the nation's 72.1 million knowledge workers were displaced by AI tools, banks would face roughly $557 billion in combined consumer credit and mortgage losses — a scenario he compared to about half the severity of the 2008 global financial crisis.
Hayes pointed to what he described as early warning signs already visible in markets.
Software SaaS stocks have been underperforming the broader Nasdaq, private credit lenders like Blue Owl have sold off, and consumer credit delinquencies are rising — all while Bitcoin has diverged sharply from tech equities since hitting its all-time high in Oct. 2025.
"Bitcoin is the global fiat liquidity fire alarm," Hayes wrote, adding that the divergence between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq "sounds the alarm that a massive credit destruction event is nigh." He identified Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) as the two tokens his fund Maelstrom plans to buy aggressively once the Fed intervenes.
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Why It Matters; Fed Paralysis Deepens Risk
Hayes argued that political turmoil at the Fed — including President Donald Trump's criminal investigation into Chair Jerome Powell — could delay the central bank's response and deepen the eventual crisis. He suggested Powell's pride may compel him to remain on the Board of Governors after his chair term expires in May, potentially obstructing incoming appointee Kevin Warsh and creating internal gridlock at a moment when decisive action would be needed.
The core of Hayes' thesis is that the Fed's discount window cannot adequately address AI-related credit losses because the underlying loans would be permanently impaired, not merely illiquid.
"Once AI takes your accountancy, legal, investment banking, etc. jobs, they ain't coming back," he wrote, warning that a full overhaul of Fed lending mechanisms would be required — a process that demands governor votes and could stall amid factional infighting.
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