BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says an AI credit bust could push Bitcoin (BTC) beyond $1 million.
Key Points:
- Hayes compared debt-funded AI construction with the credit excesses behind the 2008 financial crisis.
- Bitcoin could stay near $60,000 to $70,000, or fall toward $50,000, before liquidity conditions improve.
- Big Tech has committed about $1.09 trillion to future leases, but financial risk varies sharply among companies.
Bitcoin Liquidity Forecast
Hayes argued in a Tuesday blog post that investors wrongly classify data centers and power projects as high-growth technology investments. He said their financing more closely resembles leveraged real estate. Lenders could fund excessive construction before slower AI capital spending exposes weaker borrowers, he said.
He called the expansion a “credit story like 2008 and not an earnings story like 2000.” Under his scenario, defaults or financial stress would prompt government support for markets, creating the liquidity that could fuel a Bitcoin “crack-up boom.”
The forecast remains speculative. Hayes said Bitcoin may first trade between $60,000 and $70,000, or fall toward $50,000, while Ether (ETH) reaches $5,000 by year-end, as Maelstrom builds a significant position and sells out-of-the-money Ether put options.
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Hayes AI Risks
Reuters reported Tuesday that Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Amazon and Alphabet have committed about $1.09 trillion to leases that have not started, mainly for data centers.
The total is nearly four times their roughly $285 billion in recognized lease liabilities, although it represents undiscounted payments spread across several years.
The balance-sheet pressure is uneven. Oracle’s debt was about 4.3 times earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, while the other companies had ratios below one. S&P Global analyst Andrew Chang also noted that Oracle’s data-center leases run 15 to 19 years, while customer contracts last no more than five years.
Hayes previously argued on May 13 that U.S.-China competition in AI would expand bank lending and fiat creation, which he viewed as favorable for Bitcoin.
On Jun. 4, he sold Hyperliquid (HYPE) and Near Protocol (NEAR), warning that major AI listings could pull capital from crypto before any later liquidity surge.
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