Bitcoin (BTC) remains trapped inside a descending channel that has guided its price for eight months, and the structure now points toward a possible bottom near $51,291.
Key Points:
- Bitcoin has traded inside a descending channel since topping near $126,000 about eight months ago.
- A May rejection at $83,156 cut price by more than 12%, leaving it near $73,670 in June.
- Kalshi traders give Bitcoin a 60% chance of hitting $60,000 before reclaiming $100,000.
Bitcoin Channel Keeps Its Grip
A technical read of the daily candlestick chart tracks a descending channel that has framed Bitcoin since it peaked near $126,000 about eight months ago.
Lower highs and lower lows have stacked up the entire time. Every stronger rally has stalled at the upper edge, while every deep sell-off has found buyers near the floor.
The first major rejection landed near $97,855, the second near $83,156, and both kept the bearish frame intact. The lower boundary has done its own work, drawing a bounce near $82,167 before price slid to roughly $60,000 in early Feb. 2026. Each touch of that diagonal has produced a sharp drop rather than a clean breakout.
That May rejection at $83,156 set the current tone. Bitcoin has fallen more than 12% since, started Jun. near $73,670, and now sits in the lower half of the channel where bears expect the final low. A close back above $78,000 would ease the pressure and challenge the channel's upper rail.
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Kalshi Traders Brace For $60,000
Prediction markets echo the chart. On Kalshi, traders now give Bitcoin a 60% chance of touching $60,000 before it reclaims $100,000. That puts more money on another leg down than on a quick six-figure recovery.
The same venue priced only a 34% chance of Bitcoin clearing $100,000 before Jan. 2027. At the start of 2026, that same market put a 94% probability on a move above $100,000 by midyear. Kalshi traders now doubt a six-figure return arrives at all this year.
BTC Eyes A Deeper Bottom
An analyst posting as NoName pins the channel's end near $51,291, a level he frames as the likely cycle bottom. Other technicians warn the floor could print even lower, below $50,000. Either target would require Bitcoin to lose support zones it has so far defended.
Bitcoin's descent has been a grind, not a crash. After topping near $126,000 last autumn, it bled lower through a run of failed rebounds and touched roughly $60,000 in Feb. The middle of the channel near $70,000 now stands as the line that decides whether $60,000 comes next.
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