Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing the most aggressive net institutional selling in its history, with the combined rate of change in spot ETF and treasury company holdings plunging to -319%, according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards.
What Happened: Record Institutional Outflows
Edwards published his analysis on X, using spot exchange-traded funds and treasury companies as a proxy for institutional behavior on the Bitcoin network. The combined monthly rate of change in ETF and treasury holdings has fallen sharply into negative territory.
Treasury companies alone remain barely in positive territory, likely because of continued accumulation by Strategy. Spot ETFs, however, have dropped deep into negative territory.
Edwards also tracked a metric he calls Net Institutional Buying, which measures the combined ETF and treasury balance changes against newly mined BTC supply. During the January recovery, that metric briefly turned positive, meaning institutions were buying faster than miners could produce new coins.
That reversed quickly. The indicator fell to -319%, a level never previously recorded.
"Most aggressive institutional net selling of Bitcoin EVER this last week," Edwards wrote.
Why It Matters: Quantum Discount Risk
Edwards attributed the institutional retreat to growing concern over the quantum computing threat to Bitcoin. The technology could theoretically be used to compromise older, vulnerable BTC wallets.
In a research piece published last week, Edwards argued this risk is already affecting how rational investors value the asset. "When you consider the statistics for when Q-Day is expected to occur, the rational investor is discounting the fair value of Bitcoin by 20% today," he explained.
Edwards presented data showing that this discount would increase each year the BTC network is not upgraded to resist quantum attacks.