Bitcoin has diverged from global M2 money supply growth for the first time in its history, a development that Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards attributes to growing institutional concern over quantum computing threats to the cryptocurrency's underlying cryptography.
What Happened: Bitcoin Breaks From Liquidity
Edwards posted analysis on X showing Bitcoin's year-over-year percentage change flatlined through 2025 while global M2 supply from major economies continued rising. The pattern marks a departure from historical correlation.
"This is the first time Bitcoin has decoupled from money supply and global liquidity flows," Edwards wrote.
The analyst argues Bitcoin entered a "Quantum Event Horizon" in 2025, where the timeline to a potential quantum computing breakthrough is now shorter than the estimated time needed to upgrade Bitcoin's security protocols.
Advanced quantum machines could theoretically break into dormant wallets from the blockchain's early days and liquidate coins, undermining both price and broader trust in the network.
"Money is repositioning to account for this risk accordingly," Edwards said.
When challenged that most investors don't share his quantum timeline concerns, he responded: "If you talk to real capital allocators and Bitcoin OGs in the space 7+ years in private – they are all considering this risk."
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Why It Matters: Institutional Risk Assessment
The divergence suggests large capital allocators may be weighing long-term existential risks differently than retail traders focused on short-term price action.
Data from SoSoValue shows U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw $681 million in outflows last week, though inflows resumed at the start of the new week.
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