Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to remain tied to global macro developments in the coming months, with analysts pointing to trade tensions, monetary policy expectations and liquidity conditions as the primary forces shaping price action rather than crypto-specific fundamentals.
The current bout of volatility reflects a broader risk-off shift across financial markets, with digital assets increasingly behaving like other institutional risk allocations during periods of geopolitical and policy uncertainty.
Market participants say that dynamic is unlikely to change in the near term, even as the long-term investment case for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value strengthens.
Recent tariff developments and the legal uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy have added a fresh layer of pressure, weakening regulatory momentum for the industry while reinforcing the correlation between cryptocurrencies and technology equities.
At the same time, capital has rotated toward traditional safe havens, draining liquidity from altcoins and amplifying downside moves across the sector.
Aurélie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen, said the latest sell-off appears to be an extension of the downtrend that began in late 2025, with macro catalysts continuing to dictate market structure.
She identified $60,000 as the next key support level for Bitcoin and $70,000 as near-term resistance, adding that holding above support could keep the asset trading within that band over the coming sessions.
Ethereum’s (ETH) trajectory, she noted, remains largely dependent on Bitcoin’s direction, with correlation between the two assets approaching one.
That level of synchronization underscores that the current move is being driven by macro conditions rather than crypto-specific developments.
Institutional Flows Tie Bitcoin To Global Policy Cycles
The growing role of institutional allocators in digital-asset markets has increased Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global policy shifts, particularly those affecting growth expectations, trade flows and liquidity.
Raphael Zagury, founder and chief executive of Elektron Energy, said tariffs and fiscal uncertainty are prompting defensive capital rotation across asset classes, pulling Bitcoin into the same short-term trading patterns as equities.
Over longer horizons, however, he argued that the same policy instability reinforces the appeal of an asset with fixed supply and predictable issuance.
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He added that uncertainty, rather than measurable risk, is becoming the dominant constraint for infrastructure investment, with shifting trade frameworks complicating long-term planning for mining operations.
While such disruptions affect capital allocation decisions, the network’s difficulty adjustment mechanism continues to stabilize profitability and maintain operational resilience.
Liquidity Drain Weighs On Altcoins
Analysts say the divergence between Bitcoin and the broader crypto market is becoming more pronounced as liquidity tightens.
Jimmy Xue, co-founder and chief operating officer at Axis, described altcoins as particularly exposed to sentiment shifts because they lack the institutional sponsorship and “digital gold” narrative that provides a valuation floor for Bitcoin.
In contrast, gold has benefited from its role as a hedge against currency debasement and geopolitical stress, drawing capital during the current risk-off phase.
The result is a market in which Bitcoin trades as a high-beta macro asset in the short term, while smaller tokens experience sharper drawdowns due to thinner liquidity and weaker structural demand.
Range-Bound Trading Expected In Near Term
Near-term price expectations point to consolidation rather than a decisive trend reversal.
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, said Bitcoin is likely to trade between $58,000 and $76,000 in the short term, with current levels testing key support. Ethereum, she added, may fluctuate between $1,750 and $2,200.
She attributed the recent decline to a combination of macro stress, capital rotation and negative sentiment triggered by high-profile token sales and corporate reallocations toward artificial-intelligence infrastructure.
Those moves, while interpreted bearishly by retail investors, reflect longer-term positioning rather than a fundamental deterioration of the sector, she said.