Wintermute, the cryptocurrency market maker, published a market update Monday arguing that Bitcoin's (BTC) prolonged stall below $70,000 reflects a structural macro rotation away from software-leveraged growth assets - not a temporary correction.
The firm's OTC desk described the current environment as a "regime change" driven by two reinforcing structural forces: AI disruption reassessing software valuations, and deglobalization making supply chains and input costs permanently more fragmented.
Bitcoin has been confined to the $64,000-$67,000 range since a liquidation cascade two weeks ago.
The absence of a meaningful recovery bid, Wintermute notes, is more telling than the range itself.
The Two Macro Drivers
Wintermute identifies two simultaneous structural trades compressing growth-asset valuations.
The first is what it calls the "AI Rerate" - U.S. FY25 earnings combined with recent model releases have forced the market to reprice AI disruption risk sector by sector, compressing software growth multiples and calling into question the capex intensity of hardware plays.
The second is deglobalization: Trump's pivot from IEEPA to Section 122 tariff authority after the Supreme Court ruling, Wintermute argues, was the clearest confirmation that tariffs are structural, not transitory.
Both forces attack the same valuation premium, the firm says, embedded in globally integrated, software-leveraged growth companies. Gold, hard commodities, industrials, defense, and energy are outperforming. Value is working. Bitcoin is not.
Digital Asset Conditions
On-chain and derivatives data confirm Wintermute's read. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled $3.8 billion over five consecutive weeks - the longest outflow streak since February 2025.
BlackRock's IBIT alone shed $2.13 billion over that period. Bitcoin futures open interest fell more than 20%, from roughly $61 billion to $49 billion, in rapid deleveraging.
Basis is at multi-month lows. ETH dipped below $1,900, with Wintermute flagging $1,600 as the more meaningful technical level to watch.
Wintermute's desk noted a brief mid-week appetite from high-net-worth individuals to buy selective altcoins - a small signal of conviction in an otherwise defensive environment that "faded very quickly."
The Key Open Question
Wintermute stops short of calling this a paradigm shift, noting that growth scares over the past decade have repeatedly reversed when risk appetite returned.
The structural difference this time, the firm says, is that both the AI rerate and deglobalization are not cyclical.
How sticky the current macro narrative proves to be is, in their view, the central question for cryptocurrency in 2026 - and one that remains unanswered.
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