Bitcoin (BTC) has gained roughly 3.5% over the past seven days while gold corrected nearly 8% from recent highs above $5,400, a divergence that is drawing attention to on-chain accumulation signals, a returning U.S. buying premium on Coinbase, and the critical $70,000 resistance level that has rejected every rally attempt since mid-February.
What Happened: US Buying Demand Returns
The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price gap between Bitcoin on Coinbase and offshore exchanges, turned positive for the first time in March on Mar. 2, registering a reading of +0.00283.
The shift followed a nearly 40-day negative stretch from Jan. 15 through Feb. 23 that reflected sustained selling pressure from U.S.-based investors and institutions during the correction from above $90,000. The premium flipped positive on Feb. 24, 25 and 26, dipped briefly, then returned positive on Mar. 2 — four positive days within roughly a week.
When the premium first turned positive on Feb. 24, Bitcoin responded with a sharp bounce of nearly 13%, repeatedly testing $70,000. That level has held as firm resistance.
A bullish divergence on the daily relative strength index adds to the case. Between Jan. 25 and Mar. 1, Bitcoin's price printed a lower low while the 14-day RSI formed a higher low — a pattern often associated with reversals. The structure remains intact.
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Why It Matters: Gold Weakens, Bitcoin Holds
Gold surged above $5,400 in recent sessions but has since corrected roughly 8%, briefly dipping below the psychological $5,000 mark. It now trades near $5,170, essentially flat on the week at -0.05%.
The macro backdrop should theoretically favor gold. Brent crude has risen above $78 on geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, feeding inflation expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to 99.076, a headwind that typically weighs on both gold and Bitcoin.
Yet Bitcoin is absorbing the pressure in a way gold is not.
From a technical standpoint, the $70,000–$70,100 zone aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension drawn from the Feb. 6 low and has capped every rally attempt since mid-February. A daily close above $70,100 would open a path toward $72,200 (0.786 Fib) and potentially $74,900 (1.0 extension). On the downside, $67,200 serves as the nearest support, with $65,400 and a more critical structural level at $62,400 below it.
The convergence of returning U.S. demand through the Coinbase premium, surging holder accumulation, an intact RSI divergence and Bitcoin's relative outperformance against gold all point to $70,000 as the decisive test. A breakout above it could shift the narrative from resilience to recovery.
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