Bitcoin (BTC) is flashing a bearish momentum signal on its two-week chart that hasn't appeared since the Terra (LUNA) ecosystem collapse in 2022, according to Chartered Market Technician Tony Severino, raising fresh concerns about a potential extended downturn for the largest cryptocurrency, which has already shed nearly 30% of its value in 2026.
What Happened: MACD Hits 2022 Low
Severino flagged the deterioration in a Mar. 8 post on X, pointing to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator on BTC's two-week price chart.
The MACD histogram — which tracks the distance between the indicator's two lines and serves as a gauge of momentum direction — is expanding below the zero line, a pattern that signals strengthening bearish pressure.
The last time the histogram reached comparable levels was in 2022, just before Terra's collapse sent shockwaves across crypto markets. After that event in May 2022, Bitcoin fell from above $50,000 to roughly $30,000 by July — a decline of about 40%.
"It is possible that something nasty is coming," Severino wrote. BTC traded at around $67,179 at the time of writing, showing little movement over the prior 24 hours.
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Why It Matters: Lagging Indicator Caveat
The MACD is widely used in technical analysis, but it is considered a lagging indicator — meaning it reflects past price action rather than predicting future moves. That distinction matters here because Bitcoin's steep 2026 losses may already be embedded in the signal Severino highlighted.
In other words, the market may have already priced in the weakness the histogram is now displaying. Still, the comparison to 2022 carries weight given the severity of the downturn that followed back then.
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