Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 12% since the start of the Iran conflict while stocks and gold declined, and Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan says the rally reflects a fundamental shift in how markets view the cryptocurrency's role in global finance.
Bitcoin's Wartime Rally
Hougan noted in a recent post that since U.S. and Israeli airstrikes began on Feb. 28, the S&P 500 has fallen 1% and gold has dropped 10%. Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction.
The rally surprised many analysts who expected a risk-off selloff.
Hougan dismissed two popular explanations, that geopolitics is irrelevant to Bitcoin or that war simply leads to money printing. He argued the strength stems directly from the conflict itself.
Buying Bitcoin, Hougan wrote, is like making two bets at once. The first is a wager on "digital gold" competing in the $38 trillion store-of-value market. The second, which he compared to an out-of-the-money call option, is a bet that Bitcoin could someday function as a traditional currency.
That second bet gained credibility when Iran told the Financial Times it would collect a $1-per-barrel toll in Bitcoin from ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, roughly $20 million per day. Hougan acknowledged the move raises concerns about sanctions avoidance but called it evidence of a broader trend.
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Hougan's Currency Thesis
Hougan framed Bitcoin's potential through options pricing theory. Options gain value when either the probability of hitting a price target improves or the underlying market's volatility increases. The Iran crisis delivered both, he argued.
Bitcoin's use in a currency-like manner became more plausible. The volatility of the global monetary order also rose.
This means Bitcoin is likely to rally during future geopolitical conflicts, particularly in regions caught between U.S. and Chinese financial systems, Hougan wrote.
He added that Bitcoin's total addressable market may extend well beyond the $38 trillion gold market alone.
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