Bitcoin (BTC) may have entered a bear market cycle and could fall below $30,000, according to crypto analyst Swallow Academy, who argues the digital asset's price has completed a bearish technical pattern after a bull cycle that deviated sharply from historical norms.
Bitcoin Head and Shoulders Pattern
Swallow Academy posted the analysis on TradingView, identifying what he describes as a completed Head and Shoulders formation.
The first shoulder took shape in early 2025, while the head formed when BTC hit a new all-time high later that year.
A second shoulder emerged in 2026 as the price reversed. The analyst acknowledges this shoulder appears weaker than typical formations but maintains the pattern is valid.
He notes that the current cycle already broke convention — altcoins never rallied after BTC's all-time high, defying expectations of an altcoin season. That deviation, he argues, suggests the bear market will also follow an unconventional path.
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Swallow Academy $30K Target
According to the analyst, BTC faces initial support at $52,300. He expects that level to eventually break as well, opening the way for a decline toward $30,000.
The $70,000 support zone has already shown signs of weakness.
If it fails, the analyst says, deeper losses become likely — particularly because most investors do not expect a drop below $40,000.
Swallow Academy calls the $30,000 area a logical accumulation zone. BTC recoveries tend to be swift once a bottom is confirmed, he notes.
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