Bitcoin (BTC) fell 5.65% week-to-date to roughly $68,700 as of Sunday, erasing most of its Iran war-driven gains as the cryptocurrency's 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 turned sharply upward from a trough of -0.5.
Technical analyst Tony Severino, CMT, warned March 21 that the pattern has historically preceded some of Bitcoin's largest drawdowns.
The S&P 500 closed the week down 1.9%. Bitcoin had briefly diverged from equities in early March, rallying around 15% from late February as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated.
That decoupling is now reversing as macro headwinds - elevated oil prices above $100 per barrel, a Fed on hold, and persistent inflation - weigh on risk assets broadly.
What the Correlation Data Shows
The 20-day BTC-S&P correlation coefficient dipped to approximately -0.5 earlier this year as Bitcoin declined while equities rose.
That reading has since recovered toward -0.10, a pattern Severino said has preceded major Bitcoin market crashes in 2018, 2020, and 2022. In each prior instance, an initial bounce lasting 10–17 weeks preceded the main drawdown, with the eventual correction reaching 70–80% from the bounce peak.
Severino's analysis suggests the current recovery from the February low - now roughly eight weeks old - may represent that preliminary gain.
The analyst's warning is a single technical read, not a consensus view. Standard Chartered and Bernstein both maintain year-end Bitcoin price targets above $150,000 for 2026.
Read also: SBF Backs Trump's Iran Strikes From Prison
Strategy Buying Pause
Strategy (MSTR), which holds 761,068 BTC, has not made any new purchases this week via its STRC preferred stock program, according to tracking resource STRC.LIVE.
Its last acquisition, announced March 16, added 22,337 BTC for $1.57 billion at roughly $70,194 per coin.
That sustained institutional buying helped cushion Bitcoin's price during the initial Iran war rally. Without fresh corporate demand as a buffer, Bitcoin's near-term price action is more directly exposed to equity market movements.
Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a multi-month decline that bottomed near $60,000. It has since consolidated in a range roughly between $65,000 and $75,000.
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