Bitcoin (BTC) exchange flows from wallets holding at least one full coin have dropped to levels last seen in 2018.
This points to a tighter supply setup as large holders step back from selling while the market also absorbs a fresh geopolitical signal from Donald Trump about coordination with Xi Jinping over the Strait of Hormuz.
Bitcoin Flows
Data shared by Darkfost shows wholecoiner transfers to exchanges have fallen sharply. The monthly average on Binance is down to about 6,000 BTC from 15,400 BTC in 2021, while global transfers of at least one BTC to exchanges have slipped to roughly 27,500 BTC from about 80,000 BTC at the 2018 peak.
The shift reflects several changes in market structure. A full Bitcoin has become harder to accumulate as prices rose, spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in 2024 and gave investors another way to get exposure, and more holders now appear willing to keep coins off exchanges for longer periods.
Darkfost said the trend points to weaker selling pressure and a larger share of supply turning illiquid over time.
Also Read: Bitcoin Recovered Faster Than Expected After Hormuz Shock — Here’s Why
Van De Poppe Outlook
That retreat by long-term holders contrasts with short-term behavior. When Bitcoin tested $75,000, short-term holders sent more than 65,000 BTC to exchanges within 24 hours, and about 61,000 BTC of that volume was moved at a profit.
Michaël van de Poppe said the derivatives market may now be leaning toward a squeeze, with funding rates turning negative as open interest climbs and traders build short exposure around a third test of resistance.
He said Bitcoin staying above $72,000 keeps the structure intact, while a clean break of $75,000 could open the way to the $85,000-$88,000 range.
For now, shrinking wholecoiner exchange flows and heavy short-term profit-taking are pulling the market in opposite directions, which helps explain why Bitcoin’s next move still hinges on whether $75,000 gives way.
Read Next: Bitcoin ETFs Pull $833M As Short Hedges Hit November Highs.