The largest Bitcoin (BTC) holders are trimming positions in a way that resembles the 2022 bear market, on-chain data shows.
Key Points:
- Whale balances have stayed negative on a one-year basis, a pattern that matches the early phase of the 2022 downturn.
- Long-term holder supply has climbed to a record 15.8 million BTC, which analysts read as a bearish signal.
- Bitcoin recently changed hands near $73,536, down roughly 42% from its October peak.
Whale Distribution Returns
Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC have steadily reduced their balances over the past year, according to a fresh report from analytics firm CryptoQuant carried by Decrypt. The decline runs alongside slowing accumulation among "dolphins," addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC.
CryptoQuant said the one-year change in whale balances remains negative, a distribution pattern that directly mirrors the 2022 bear market, when year-over-year whale growth first stalled then turned negative.
Back then, Bitcoin slid from a March high of $47,450 to a November low of $15,742, a drop of nearly 67%. The current decline from October's all-time high of $126,080 sits at about 42%, leaving room for further weakness if the parallel holds.
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Bearish Signal From Holders
Both whales and dolphins have stalled on a monthly basis, the firm noted, and warned that simultaneous inaction across the two groups tends to precede sustained price weakness.
Long-term holder supply has reached a record 15.8 million BTC. The firm framed the milestone as bearish rather than bullish, arguing it reflects an absence of fresh buyers rather than conviction from existing holders.
Short-term demand, the firm added, is too thin to absorb selling from older wallets.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $73,536 on Thursday, down 1.7% on the day and close to 5% on the week.
Recent Context
The fresh whale data follows months of bearish on-chain readings. CryptoQuant earlier reported that the exchange whale ratio climbed to 0.64 in February, the highest since October 2015, with the top 10 deposits accounting for 64% of inflows.
Separate work from the firm placed the potential bear market floor near $55,000, citing the asset's realized price as historical support. Bitcoin peaked at $126,080 in October 2025 before its slide began.
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