Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone predicted Bitcoin (BTC) is more likely to decline to $50,000 than surpass $100,000 in 2026.
McGlone released his market outlook for 2026 on January 1, warning of broad asset class volatility ahead.
The strategist accurately forecasted gold's rally to $4,000 per ounce in early 2025, with the precious metal reaching a record $4,549.78 in December.
His 2026 outlook presents a significantly more cautious view across cryptocurrencies, equities, and commodities.
What Happened
McGlone warned cryptocurrencies "have peaked" and could lead a post-inflation deflationary phase.
The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index declined 19% in 2025, which McGlone cited as evidence supporting his bearish cryptocurrency thesis.
He suggested U.S. Treasury bonds will outperform gold in 2026 as the precious metal faces "went up-too-much" risks following its historic rally.
McGlone predicted U.S. stocks could experience their third consecutive down year since 2008, despite equity markets setting records in December 2025.
The strategist compared President Donald Trump's economic timing to Herbert Hoover, whose presidency coincided with the 1929 Wall Street crash and subsequent Great Depression.
McGlone's framework suggests major asset classes may have reached cyclical highs, with 2026 favoring tactical traders over long-term positioning.
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Why It Matters
McGlone's track record on gold adds weight to his bearish 2026 outlook, though his Bitcoin predictions have historically been mixed.
The analyst's thesis centers on wealth-effect reversal following years of aggressive liquidity and speculative asset appreciation.
As inflation cools and financial conditions normalize, McGlone expects cryptocurrency to lead deflationary unwinding rather than continue appreciating.
His prediction contrasts sharply with bullish forecasts from analysts like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicted Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by March 2026.
McGlone's outlook suggests 2026 will reward agility over conviction, with volatility and relative-value trades potentially dominating market behavior.
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