Bloomberg Intelligence macro strategist Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin (BTC) could drop to $10,000 and potentially signal a U.S. recession as cryptocurrency market weakness coincides with elevated equity valuations.
The analyst argued the post-2008 "buy the dip" mentality may be ending.
McGlone cited U.S. stock market capitalization relative to GDP reaching its highest level in roughly a century alongside 180-day volatility in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at eight-year lows.
He described the crypto market as "imploding" while gold and silver gain at a velocity last seen approximately 50 years ago.
Market Comparison and Downside Targets
McGlone shared a chart comparing bitcoin divided by 10 to the S&P 500, with both hovering below 7,000 as of February 13. He suggested bitcoin cannot maintain current levels if broader equity markets weaken.
The Bloomberg analyst identified 5,600 on the S&P 500 as an initial reversion level, equivalent to approximately $56,000 for bitcoin under his framework.
His longer-term base case calls for bitcoin reverting toward $10,000, contingent on a peak in U.S. stock markets.
Bitcoin dropped below $68,000 on Monday after briefly testing $70,000 over the weekend. The cryptocurrency has declined nearly 50% from its October 2025 peak above $126,000.
Read also: Steak 'n Shake Claims 15% Sales Increase Since Accepting Bitcoin Payments
Counterarguments and ETF Data
Jason Fernandes, co-founder of AdLunam, disputed McGlone's thesis, calling it "false equivalence and single-path bias." Fernandes told CoinDesk that markets can resolve excesses through time, rotation or inflation erosion rather than collapse.
A move to $10,000 would require "sharp liquidity contraction, widening credit spreads, forced deleveraging across funds and a disorderly equity drawdown," Fernandes stated. He views such an outcome as low-probability absent a credit shock or policy mistake.
Bitcoin ETFs have experienced $678 million in outflows during February, extending redemptions to $6 billion since November according to DefiLlama data. The broader cryptocurrency market lost approximately $2 trillion in value during the recent downturn.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that crypto legislation like the Clarity Act could restore investor confidence. Institutions including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs continue increasing cryptocurrency exposure despite market weakness.
Read next: Vitalik Buterin Defends Right To Criticize Ethereum Applications Without Censoring Users