The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on that the economy shed 92,000 jobs in February - the worst reading in months - sharply missing the consensus forecast of 59,000 new positions.
Bitcoin (BTC), which typically rallies on weak labor data as rate-cut expectations build, traded down to approximately $70,000 immediately following the release, reflecting a broader risk-off mood driven by surging oil prices and Middle East war uncertainty.
The February report reversed January's revised gain of 126,000 jobs and extended a pattern of downward revisions: December was revised from +48,000 to -17,000, meaning the two-month combined total was 69,000 lower than previously reported.
What the Numbers Show
Job losses were concentrated in healthcare (-28,000, partly due to a California nurses' strike), manufacturing (-12,000), transportation and warehousing (-11,000), information (-11,000), and federal government (-10,000).
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% against an expected 4.3%.
Average hourly earnings grew 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year - both beating estimates - keeping wage-driven inflation pressure intact despite the broader labor contraction.
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Why Crypto Didn't Rally
The simultaneous presence of a contracting labor market and sticky wages creates a stagflation-adjacent scenario the Fed cannot resolve cleanly with rate cuts. CME FedWatch data shows traders assigning a 95.6% probability that the Fed holds rates at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17-18 meeting.
Oil prices above $100 per barrel - driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure - threaten to push CPI higher regardless of labor conditions, which limits the Fed's room to ease.
Bitcoin has dropped after seven of the past eight FOMC meetings, including meetings where the Fed actually cut rates, according to CoinGecko data cited by Phemex. The March 18 meeting now carries additional weight: it includes updated economic projections and the dot plot, where a shift from one projected 2026 cut to zero would likely pressure risk assets immediately.
The February CPI report, due Wednesday, and PCE data due Friday will be the next critical inputs for crypto market positioning ahead of that meeting.