Cardano (ADA) is trading inside a bullish falling wedge pattern and holding key support at $0.383, but on-chain data reveals long-term holders have sharply increased selling activity while short-term traders step in to absorb supply—a shift that threatens to undermine the ADA's projected 49% rally toward $0.437.
What Happened; Long-Term Holders Exit
ADA declined about 2% over the past 24 hours and has trended lower since Jan. 6, though weekly performance remains roughly flat.
The token continues to trade within a falling wedge formation that has been in place since early November. This technical pattern is typically considered bullish because price compresses while selling pressure weakens.
On-chain metrics show a stark divergence between holder cohorts.
The spent coins age band for the 365-day to 2-year group surged from approximately 1.92 million ADA to 4.51 million ADA on Jan. 9—an increase of roughly 135% in a single day.
Meanwhile, the 30-day to 60-day cohort reduced selling activity from about 55.42 million ADA to 4.28 million ADA, a drop of nearly 92%.
The Money Flow Index, which measures buying and selling pressure using price and volume, shows a bullish divergence since early November. However, the shift in holder behavior suggests this signal now reflects short-term dip buying rather than renewed long-term confidence.
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Why It Matters; Fragile Support Structure
Derivatives data from Coinglass reveals the market is heavily skewed toward longs.
On Binance's ADA-USDT perpetual market, cumulative long liquidation leverage stands near $26.66 million compared to $14.11 million for shorts—roughly 89% higher long exposure.
That imbalance creates downside risk.
If speculative capital exits, crowded long positions could unwind rapidly through forced liquidations.
A daily close above $0.437 would break the descending trendline and validate the wedge's projected 49% upside target.
A break below $0.351 would damage the pattern and expose $0.328 as the next major support—confirming that recent stability was distribution rather than accumulation.
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