Cardano (ADA) has shed roughly 9% over the past seven days, with ADA trading near $0.258 on Saturday - its lowest range since early 2024.
Yet on-chain data and a momentum indicator on the 12-hour chart are now diverging from the price decline in a way that warrants attention.
The moves come as weekend trading thins liquidity across cryptocurrency markets, historically amplifying short-term technical reactions in either direction.
What the Data Shows
On-chain metrics tracking the percentage of ADA's circulating supply held above its purchase price - a proxy for how many holders are in profit - have fallen to approximately 7.03%, down from 11.3% on March 5. A similar reading on March 4, when the metric touched 9.43%, preceded a roughly 8% price move from approximately $0.26 to $0.28 within 24 hours, according to market data.
Separately, the Spent Coins Age Band - which tracks coins moving on-chain across all holder age groups and can reflect distribution activity - has dropped from approximately 171 million coins on February 27 to around 90 million, a reduction of roughly 47% and a monthly low.
Fewer coins moving on-chain for potential distribution can indicate holders are less willing to sell at current price levels, reducing near-term supply pressure. Neither dataset has been independently verified against a named on-chain analytics platform.
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Why It Matters
On the 12-hour chart, ADA's Relative Strength Index produced a higher low between February 13 and March 6 while price formed a lower low - a structure known as bullish divergence, which can appear when selling momentum weakens before a price stabilization.
The pattern does not guarantee a reversal and frequently fails in sustained downtrends.
ADA is currently trading just above the $0.255 support level. A sustained defense of that zone could put the $0.270 resistance band, which rejected multiple recovery attempts in early March, back in focus. A breakdown below $0.255 would likely expose the $0.250 level and neutralize the near-term setup.
Cardano's market capitalization stands near $9.5 billion. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions, particularly Bitcoin's trajectory, remain the dominant variable for any ADA move this weekend.
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