Shares of Circle (USDC) Internet Group surged roughly 30% on Wednesday to nearly $80, after the company posted fourth-quarter revenue of $770 million - up 77% year-over-year - and a 412% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $167 million.
The results exceeded analyst estimates, with William Blair noting a revenue-less-distribution-cost margin of over 40%, about 240 basis points above its model.
USDC in circulation reached $75.3 billion at year-end, up 72% from 2024, while the company guided to a 40% compound annual growth rate in USDC circulation over coming years.
For the full fiscal year 2025, Circle reported $2.7 billion in total revenue, but posted a net loss of $70 million from continuing operations - largely due to $424 million in stock-based compensation tied to IPO vesting conditions.
What Happened
Circle's Q4 net income from continuing operations hit $133 million, compared with $4 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted EBITDA of $167 million topped William Blair's estimate by 12%.
Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury reiterated their "outperform" rating, calling Circle "among a short list of high-quality cryptocurrency infrastructure plays within public markets today."
Shares now trade at roughly 17x the firm's 2027 EBITDA estimate, an 8% premium to fintech peers.
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USDC Transaction Volume
On-chain USDC transaction volume reached $11.9 trillion in the quarter, up 247% year-over-year. USDC captured roughly 47% of total stablecoin transaction volume in Q4, up from 32% in Q4 2024, according to Circle's own earnings slides.
Speaking on CNBC's Squawk Box on Wednesday, CEO Jeremy Allaire put that figure at "about 50%," citing Visa transaction data.
Why It Matters
Allaire argued that USDC growth is decoupling from bitcoin price cycles, with adoption now driven more by payments, treasury management, and financial infrastructure.
He acknowledged growing competition from major banks entering stablecoins, but said scale and network effects tend to consolidate activity among a small number of issuers.
USDC holds roughly 28% of the total stablecoin market by circulation, well behind Tether's approximately $183 billion.
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