The Dogecoin market currently reveals a bearish chart pattern on the 4-hour time frame, raising potential concerns for investors. After initially forming a bullish falling wedge pattern between November 12 and 19, expectations of a strong rally were thwarted when the anticipated breakout quickly faltered.
On November 19, Dogecoin initially surged from the formation, generating optimism among traders. Yet, financial analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) had foreseen the breakout's lack of strength, a prediction later affirmed by the token's price activity.
A critical gauge for Dogecoin's price trajectory is its interaction with the macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, where it faced sharp rejection. Kevin argues that without a decisive and forceful breakthrough of this resistance, heightened excitement over Dogecoin is unwarranted. He further highlighted that Bitcoin’s position at a key resistance level suggests any significant moves in Dogecoin will be contingent upon Bitcoin breaching the $100,000 ceiling. "For now, expect things to drift along," Kevin remarked.
Kevin advises traders to rein in their excitement, asserting, "Maintain composure; there's little short-term cause for excitement. Both BTC and Dogecoin remain at major resistances.
Breaks are yet to materialize." He underscores the relevance of Bitcoin's behavior, noting, "Providing technical analysis on BTC supersedes that on Dogecoin for now. DOGE, lacking direction, mirrors Bitcoin's potential moves."
Kevin's analysis of Dogecoin’s 4-hour chart highlights a "nasty triple top" pattern at the macro 0.786 Fibonacci level, presenting a bearish sign possibly heralding downward pressure. He cautioned that should a correction down to $0.30 occur—a scenario he previously floated—“many unwavering bulls will face challenging questions."
A triple top in technical analysis indicates a shift from an upward to downward trend, occurring when price repeatedly tests the same resistance without breaking through. Dogecoin’s failure to surpass $0.41 at the 0.786 Fib signals waning bullish energy in the short term.
Kevin asserts Dogecoin is yet to effect a true breakout: "Absent a definitive breach of the 0.786 Fib at $0.41, it's confined to sideways motion." He outlined a bullish vision predicated on overcoming this barrier. "Should Dogecoin forcefully clear that level, expect targets around $0.80 to $0.85. It's an uphill task, contingent on BTC’s upward momentum," he explained.
In recent days, Kevin has projected a deeper correction for Dogecoin, supported by the triple top and 0.786 Fibonacci rejections. His initial target price swims in the $0.30 to $0.26 range, termed the golden pocket retracement, marking a 30-40% pullback from the local peak—a healthy correction in a bull market.
Kevin turns attention to the macro perspective, highlighting the decisive importance of the upcoming monthly candle closure. "Dogecoin's looming objective is a monthly candle close above $0.335 within 11 days, marking an all-time peak close," he commented, noting his close monitoring of this milestone.