Ethereum has dropped below a significant technical pattern, opening the path toward a potential 28% decline that could mark the cryptocurrency's next cycle bottom. The second-largest digital asset fell more than 6% in the past 24 hours and has lost roughly 27% over the last 30 days. On-chain data from long-term holders aligns with the pattern breakdown, pointing to the same lower price zone.
What Happened: Pattern Breakdown
Ethereum broke down from a bear flag formation after failing to hold above $2,990, according to data from TradingView. The asset slipped out of a rising channel it had maintained for a week, completing a continuation pattern that technical analysts use to project further declines. The initial sell-off created what traders call the "pole," representing a 28.39% drop, and the breakdown from the flag structure activates a measured target near $2,140.
That target sits about 28% below the breakdown level and finds support from long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss data. NUPL, which measures unrealized profit held by long-term holders, has trended lower since Aug. 22.
The metric's latest short-term low reached 0.36 on Nov. 21, but the six-month low stands at 0.28 from June 22, according to Glassnode data.
On that June date, when NUPL touched 0.28, Ethereum traded near $2,230 before reversing into a rally that eventually pushed prices to $4,820. That represented a 116% gain from the bottom. If NUPL were to retest the 0.28 level again, the implied drawdown from Ethereum's recent local high near $2,990 would fall in the same 20-25% range, matching the bear flag's 28% projection to $2,140.
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Why It Matters: Support Levels
The Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap from Glassnode reveals where significant accumulation occurred recently. The strongest support band sits between $2,801 and $2,823, where 3,591,002 ETH changed hands. Ethereum has already broken below $2,840, putting pressure on this cost-basis wall.
Without a quick recovery above $2,840 and a close above $2,990, sellers maintain control of price action. The trend-based extension shows several intermediate levels before reaching the full breakdown target. The first sits at $2,690, roughly 4.5% below current prices. Below that, the decline could extend to $2,560, then $2,440, and finally $2,260—just 2% above the June NUPL bottom price of $2,230.
If Ethereum falls through $2,266, the bear flag target becomes the most realistic outcome.
The bearish structure has an invalidation path, but it requires strength across multiple resistance levels. Ethereum must reclaim $2,840, break above $2,990, secure a close above $3,090, and push through $3,240—a roughly 15% move up from current levels—to void the pattern entirely.
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