A growing group of technically sophisticated traders is generating consistent income on Polymarket using automated and algorithmic strategies, signaling a shift in how prediction markets are being used and raising questions about market efficiency and access.
What Happened
According to multiple traders and strategy breakdowns circulating among developers, programmers are earning anywhere from $10,000 to more than $200,000 per month by deploying bots that exploit pricing inefficiencies across Polymarket’s yes-or-no contracts.
Rather than relying on superior forecasting of political or economic outcomes, these traders are using market-neutral strategies that resemble professional quantitative trading.
The most common approach involves pure arbitrage, where traders simultaneously buy both “YES” and “NO” tokens when their combined price falls below $1.
Because one outcome must resolve at $1, this strategy locks in a fixed profit regardless of the event result.
One trader operating under the name “distinct-baguette” reportedly generated $242,000 in roughly six weeks using this method, targeting short-duration crypto markets where prices fluctuate rapidly.
Other traders are employing statistical arbitrage, scanning hundreds of related markets for temporary divergences. For example, contracts tied to a presidential election and legislative control may historically move together, but can briefly decouple.
When spreads widen, traders buy the cheaper contract and sell the more expensive one, closing the position once prices converge.
One such trader, “sharky6999,” is said to have earned $480,000 by running models that monitor more than 100 markets per minute.
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A more complex strategy involves machine-learning probability models, where traders estimate “true” odds using news flows and social media data.
When their models disagree with market prices, they place directional bets.
One trader cited in strategy discussions, “ilovecircle,” reportedly generated $2.2 million in two months using an ensemble of AI models retrained weekly.
High-frequency techniques are also being applied.
What It Matters
Some traders engage in spread farming, repeatedly buying at the bid and selling at the ask, or hedging positions across platforms.
One account, “cry.eth2,” is said to have executed nearly one million trades to generate $194,000, relying on automated order placement through Polymarket’s central limit order book.
Underlying these strategies is a shared technical foundation.
Traders are using Python-based bots, polling Polymarket’s REST APIs every one to three seconds, resolving outcome token IDs, and executing trades automatically via the platform’s CLOB interface.
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