Bitcoin has recently surged to unprecedented heights, igniting widespread speculation that it could reach the $100,000 mark before 2024 ends. Crypto betting site Kalshi reports that 60% of its users believe this milestone will be hit before January, with 45% optimistic about November 2024.
Kalshi, established in 2021, enables users to wager on various outcomes, such as economic data releases and election results. This year, it gained notable attention, having won a legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that allowed US participation in its markets, especially for presidential elections. Following the November 5 US presidential election, Bitcoin saw a 28% surge. The election of President-elect Donald Trump, who has supported the crypto industry and promised favorable regulations, bolstered enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies.
Mike Colonnese, an analyst at H.C. Wainwright, commented on the market's trajectory, stating that strong positive sentiments could persist throughout 2024. He forecasts that Bitcoin might hit six figures by year-end. Colonnese highlighted Bitcoin's current "price discovery" phase, which commenced after it surpassed its previous all-time high following Trump's election triumph. He believes that this mix of market excitement and regulatory optimism might keep Bitcoin on an upward path, attracting new investors and strengthening its financial landscape position by the close of 2024.
While many are betting on Bitcoin reaching $100,000, Wall Street analysts caution about cryptocurrencies' speculative nature. Solita Marcelli, UBS Global Wealth Management's CIO for the Americas, elaborated on this in a client note, indicating skepticism about digital assets' potential to revolutionize real-world applications. She remarked on their tendency to heighten portfolio volatility.
UBS pointed out that since 2014, Bitcoin has faced three significant drawdowns over 70%, taking an average of three years to recover.
Despite these warnings, several cryptocurrencies saw gains on Wednesday, including Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL). Dogecoin (DOGE) notably surged following Trump's announcement that Tesla CEO Elon Musk and former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy would lead a new "Department of Government Efficiency," abbreviated as DOGE.
Unlike Bitcoin's bullish trajectory, crypto-related equities experienced a pause. Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) stocks slowed after recent upticks, with Coinbase down about 2% and Robinhood remaining steady. After soaring to a record $93,000 on Wednesday, Bitcoin settled back to $90,350, still showing a 20% weekly gain.