As crypto markets navigate Bitcoin's first red October in seven years and a turbulent start to November, industry experts are painting a picture of cautious optimism tempered by significant macroeconomic headwinds, with the next four weeks likely to determine whether 2025's bull run can regain momentum or faces deeper correction.
According to data from Binance, Bitcoin fell to $99,980 in the past 24 hours before recovering to trade at $100,854, down 2.24%, while Ethereum dropped 6.13% to $3,291.69 after touching $3,255.
The selloff triggered $1.63 billion in long liquidations, part of $2.1 billion in total liquidations, according to Coinglass data. Yet several analysts argue the drawdown represents a healthy reset rather than a structural reversal.
"Bitcoin's first red October in seven years has certainly caught attention, but I see it more as a healthy reset than a structural reversal," said Rachel Lin, CEO of SynFutures, speaking with Yellow.com "October's correction has done what it needed to: it has flushed out leverage and re-set sentiment."
The Federal Reserve's recent policy shift has emerged as the dominant variable shaping near-term sentiment. While the central bank delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, Chair Jerome Powell's cautious tone, emphasizing that future cuts are not guaranteed, removed what many investors had counted on as a reliable tailwind.
Iliya Kalchev, analyst at Nexo Dispatch, frames November as a month where competing forces will battle for control. "November finds the crypto market at the intersection of competing forces — macroeconomic expectations, leveraged trading dynamics, and persistent institutional flows — each capable of steering sentiment in markedly different directions," he said.
Kalchev noted that while the anticipated pivot toward quantitative easing had been a dominant market narrative, expectations for a December rate cut have now moderated following Powell's hawkish commentary.
This uncertainty is compounded by ongoing quantitative tightening, which Lin pointed out continues to drain liquidity from the system and limit speculative appetite.
"Until we see a clearer signal that the Fed is prepared to pause QT or hint at balance-sheet expansion, markets are likely to remain choppy," Lin said.
However, she added that this setup also creates potential for a strong rebound if incoming inflation data cools and yields stabilize. Luke Youngblood, founder of Moonwell, is less optimistic about the immediate path forward.
"The biggest downside risks are the continued fallout from macro uncertainty," he said, pointing to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and the now-uncertain December rate cut. "Markets are generally bearish and will take some time to recover to new all-time highs."
Beyond the macro debate, several experts see November as a potential inflection point where market focus shifts from speculative trading to fundamental infrastructure.
Markus Levin, co-founder of XYO Network, argues that the next cycle will be defined not by memes or momentum but by systems delivering tangible utility. "The Fed's potential rate cut puts crypto back in play, but what matters now isn't just liquidity, it's structure," Levin said. "Crypto is moving from speculation to infrastructure."
He specifically highlighted decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePINs) as gaining traction despite broader market weakness.
"In the past year, network fees and node activity have continued to climb even as broader market volumes fell," Levin noted. "That tells you real demand is forming at the edges of the market, in connectivity, energy, and data, not just finance,” he added.
The intersection of artificial intelligence and blockchain is drawing particular attention.
Javed Khattak, co-founder and CFO of cheqd, sees digital trust becoming the defining issue as AI acceleration intensifies.
"As algorithms learn from ever larger datasets, the question shifts from 'what can AI do?' to 'what can we trust it to do?'" he said. Khattak expects November to showcase greater convergence between AI and digital-identity technologies, with privacy-preserving infrastructure forming the backbone of sustainable AI adoption in regulated sectors.
"We're moving toward systems where humans, organizations, and AI agents can verify each other without surrendering unnecessary personal data," he explained.
On-chain activity tells a story of capital retreating from risk.
Youngblood observed that since the October 10 market flush, which liquidated significant numbers of altcoin traders on perpetual futures exchanges, trading volume has concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum while many traders have trimmed altcoin exposure or gone risk-off entirely.
Kalchev warned that derivatives activity continues to amplify short-term price swings, creating an environment where November's trading ranges could prove more volatile even if broader trends remain intact.
"Futures and options positioning have become powerful drivers of price action, helping sustain upward momentum during rallies while magnifying pullbacks," he said.
For Bitcoin specifically, Kalchev sees the asset at a critical juncture.
Should BTC hold above the psychologically important $100,000 level, he expects consolidation in the low $100,000s could define November, potentially paving the way for a push toward new highs once a fresh catalyst emerges.
Conversely, failure to hold could see the asset revisit the high-$80,000 to low-$90,000 zone.
"ETF flows, long-term holder behavior, and macroeconomic sentiment will remain the decisive variables," Kalchev said, noting that while older holders have been taking profits, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded consistent inflows throughout October.
Despite near-term headwinds, experts maintain that the structural bull case remains intact.
Lin emphasized that unlike the 2018 bear market, today's market structure features robust institutional adoption, improving regulatory clarity, and Bitcoin's evolution into a core macro asset.
"On-chain data shows that long-term holders are not capitulating, they're actively accumulating," Lin said. "Exchange outflows remain steady, and that's historically a constructive sign."
She also noted that some investors are beginning to treat Bitcoin not just as a risk asset but as a geopolitical hedge in an environment of rising currency volatility and fiscal uncertainty in major economies.
Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin's strongest months, and Lin believes that pattern could hold if macro conditions cooperate.
She maintains that a move toward $120,000 to $150,000 by the end of 2025 remains within reach if Bitcoin continues to follow its typical post-halving pattern.
Kalchev pointed to potential macro catalysts that could shift sentiment, particularly upcoming CPI or employment reports. "A softer inflation print or signs of labor market cooling might reignite dovish expectations and bolster risk appetite," he said.
For Ethereum, Kalchev sees the asset potentially nearing an inflection point of its own, with the upcoming Fusaka upgrade expected to enhance scalability and execution efficiency across the Layer-2 ecosystem.
He suggested ETH may have already established a base near $3,300 from which gradual recovery could begin.
The consensus among experts appears to be that November will serve as a period of stabilization where multiple forces counterbalance each other before the market's next decisive move emerges.
"November may prove to be a month of equilibrium, where macro signals, leveraged positioning, and institutional flows counterbalance each other," Kalchev said. "The market's next decisive move will likely emerge from how these forces align once the data and sentiment resolve in one direction."
Khattak summarized the structural shift underway, saying that the industry is maturing with crypto evolving from speculative assets to verified systems of record.
The focus is shifting from volatility to verifiability, and that's a positive trend for the long term.
Whether November delivers on its historical strength or extends October's weakness may depend less on crypto-native factors and more on how traditional macro variables like inflation data, Fed communications, and global liquidity conditions play out in the weeks ahead.