Market analysts say the latest crypto selloff stems from a combination of macro-driven risk aversion and heavy leverage unwinding, with several pointing to specific price levels and liquidity triggers that will determine whether the downturn stabilizes or deepens in the coming weeks.
Bitcoin fell to around $96,000 on Friday amid one of the largest ETF outflow days of the year, sharp position liquidations, and a marked drop in sentiment.
The Fear and Greed Index slipped to 22, while more than $1.11 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, reflecting the scale of forced selling across derivatives markets.
Against this backdrop, experts told Yellow.com that the correction is material but not disorderly.
Several noted that while the market structure today is more mature than in 2022, the presence of ETFs and institutional flow has made the market more sensitive to macroeconomic data, Treasury conditions, and shifts in risk appetite.
Hedy Wang, CEO and co-founder of Block Street, said the downturn “seems to be a mix of macro nerves and the fact that there’s also too much leverage, too much speculative plays around ETFs.”
She contrasted the move with the 2023–2024 corrections, describing those pullbacks as more technical, whereas “now it’s more macro-linked, more psychological.”
Other analysts echoed the liquidity-driven nature of the decline.
Mark Rydon, cofounder of Aethir, said the combination of macro tightening and thin liquidity “makes derivatives unwind faster than spot buyers can step in.”
He noted that the current structure resembles earlier corrections but is now shaped more heavily by institutional ETF flow, which makes downside pressure “cleaner but more sensitive to macro signals.”
Still, some see the recent drawdown as part of a normal adjustment rather than a structural turn.
Tim Meggs, CEO of UK-based LO: TECH, said this downturn is “very different from the crisis of 2022,” noting the absence of panic, platform failures, or forced liquidations of major firms.
“These measured corrections are actually healthy for price discovery and removing overexcitement,” he said.
Conditions for a rebound, experts say, depend largely on whether Bitcoin can reclaim key levels and whether macro data improves. Wang said Bitcoin “breaking $100k with conviction” would restore sentiment, while sideways consolidation near $90k could still stabilize flows.
Rydon pointed to BTC holding the $93k–$95k area and reclaiming $103k–$105k as signs buyers are regaining control. For Ethereum, he flagged $3,400 as a stabilizing threshold.
Some analysts identified macro variables as potential catalysts within the next one to two months.
A shift in Fed expectations, renewed ETF inflows, or completion of a full derivatives flush were mentioned as possible triggers for a rebound.
Kyle Chassé, founder of MV Global, pointed to liquidity trends tied to U.S. fiscal flows and the end of quantitative tightening, arguing that broader monetary expansion “creates a structural bid for outside assets,” even if short-term volatility remains.
Experts also highlighted what could worsen the downturn.
Wang said the risk would rise if the Federal Reserve “doubles down on hawkish talk or CPI runs hotter again,” which she believes could push Bitcoin toward the mid-$80k range.
Rydon likewise said a weak inflation print or sustained ETF outflows could send Bitcoin into the high-$80k region, dragging altcoins into deeper capitulation.
Opinions differ on whether these levels would amount to the start of a bear market.
Wang said Bitcoin breaking below $80k and failing to recover would be her threshold. Rydon’s view was more blunt: “Ain’t no bear coming.”
Sector-wise, analysts expect memecoins and non-revenue protocols to remain the most vulnerable due to their reliance on speculative flows.
“Memecoins are tanking as they live and die on euphoria,” Wang said, adding that infrastructure-related assets tied to restaking, liquidity layers, and tokenized-asset rails have held up better.
Rydon also cited Bitcoin, Ethereum and infrastructure with real revenue as the strongest categories.
When pressed on timing, Rydon said he expects Bitcoin to find a bottom “in the next 7 days,” while others were more conditional, pointing to macro data releases and ETF flow reversals as key determinants.
As of Friday, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $869.9 million in net outflows, the second-largest day on record, while Ethereum funds recorded $259.7 million in redemptions.
More than 248,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, underscoring the extent of leveraged exposure that unwound during the move.