Kalshi and luxury watch marketplace Bezel have launched event contracts allowing users to bet on the future prices of high-end timepieces, including Rolex and Patek Philippe models.
The move extends Kalshi's push into collectibles prediction markets, following earlier deals in sneakers and trading cards.
The contracts, branded as Watch Futures, let users trade on outcomes such as whether a specific watch model will exceed a price threshold or whether a brand will discontinue a reference.
Entry starts at $1 per contract, according to the companies.
What Happened
Kalshi announced the partnership on March 3.
Bezel's proprietary pricing engine, Beztimate, will underpin the contracts - aggregating real-time bids, verified sales data, and live offers to generate watch valuations. The tool was originally built for internal use to advise Bezel's buyers and sellers on pricing.
Kalshi, founded in 2018 and valued at $11 billion, recently struck a separate deal with Tradeweb Markets to stream its pricing and data to investment firms. It previously partnered with StockX on collectibles contracts covering sneakers and trading cards.
Bezel CEO Quaid Walker said in an interview that watches have "been viewed as a financial market for a really long period of time, but it's also passion-driven." He added the contracts could broaden participation for enthusiasts who cannot afford six-figure timepieces outright.
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Why It Matters
The launch comes as prediction markets face mounting regulatory and ethical scrutiny. Several U.S. states have challenged Kalshi's sports contracts, arguing they constitute gambling rather than derivatives.
The CFTC, which licenses Kalshi as a Designated Contract Market, publicly argued last month that federal jurisdiction should supersede state-level challenges.
Concerns about market manipulation are not abstract. Over the weekend, Polymarket contracts tied to the timing of U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran drew over $529 million in trading volume, with immediate questions raised over whether traders with advance knowledge had profited from the conflict.
The luxury watch market adds its own layer of complexity. Bezel rejected 38% of watches submitted for sale in the second half of 2025, per the company's own annual report - a figure that raises questions about data quality and liquidity depth underpinning the new contracts.
Watch Futures are accessible in the "Culture" section of Kalshi's app and website.
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