Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to further entrench its role as the dominant form of cryptomoney in 2026, while most alternative Layer-1 assets continue to lose market share and monetary relevance, according to Messari.
In its 2026 outlook, Messari argues that crypto markets are entering a phase defined less by speculative cycles and more by monetary credibility.
Bitcoin Will Be Driven By Macro Forces
As Bitcoin becomes increasingly treated as a macro asset, the firm says traditional crypto-native frameworks, including the four-year halving cycle, are losing explanatory power.
Instead, Bitcoin’s trajectory is expected to be shaped by broader macroeconomic forces and its growing role within institutional portfolios and government balance sheets.
“What we are confident in, however, is BTC’s long-term monetary trajectory,” Messari wrote, adding that Bitcoin is expected to continue appreciating “in monetary terms, against both USD and gold” over longer time horizons.
Layer-1's face Loss Of Relevance
The report presents a stark outlook for alternative Layer-1 tokens heading into 2026.
Despite commanding a large share of crypto’s total market capitalization, Messari finds that most Layer-1 valuations remain increasingly disconnected from revenues, usage, and onchain economic activity.
As a result, the firm does not expect capital to rotate back into Layer-1s in a way that challenges Bitcoin’s dominance.
“Going forward, we don’t expect this trend to reverse in 2026 or in the years to come,” Messari stated, noting that alternative Layer-1s are expected to “continue losing market share to BTC”
Ethereum’s Monetary Role Tied To Bitcoin
Ethereum (ETH) occupies a more complex position in Messari’s 2026 outlook.
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While ETH has regained momentum through ETF inflows and the rise of ETH-focused digital asset treasuries, the report emphasizes that Ethereum’s monetary role remains structurally linked to Bitcoin.
Messari notes that ETH continues to trade with elevated correlation and beta relative to BTC, limiting its ability to function as an independent monetary asset.
“The market continues to price ETH’s monetary premium as contingent on BTC’s,” the report states, underscoring that Ethereum’s valuation remains tied to Bitcoin’s broader monetary narrative
Beyond the two largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, Messari highlights privacy-focused assets as one of the few areas where distinct monetary narratives may persist into 2026.
The report points to rising concerns around surveillance, institutional capture, and central bank digital currencies as factors reshaping how markets evaluate monetary properties such as privacy and censorship resistance.
The analysis firm suggests a more selective crypto market, where capital increasingly concentrates in assets perceived as credible forms of money.
Bitcoin’s role as a non-sovereign monetary asset is expected to strengthen further, while much of the broader crypto market faces growing pressure to justify its long-term relevance.
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